In last month’s Short Term Energy Outlook — produced monthly by the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration — the average price of diesel was forecasted to be 10 cents lower in 2013 than it was in 2012, a number that would put this year’s average at $3.87. 

However, in the latest Short Term Energy Outlook, released last week, the price is only expected to average a nickel less in 2013, but still drop to $3.82 per gallon in 2014. 

The price drops will come from an expected decline in the price of a barrel of crude oil, which averaged $112 in 2012. The EIA says that price will be $109 in 2013, though crude oil has averaged $119 a barrel so far this year. 

The Outlook predicts a rise in liquid fuel consumption over the next two years. Consumption had dropped from 2005 to 2012 from 20.8 million barrels a day to 18.6 million, respectively. EIA forecasts that number to rise to 18.7 million in 2014, pushed mostly by increases in use of distillate fuel and liquified petroleum gas.