Take rates of Class 8 electric semi trucks could hit double digits by 2035

It could take a generation or more before electrified semi trucks are commonplace on U.S. highways, but a recent report from ACT Research suggests they could reach a level comparable natural gas rates in less than a decade.

According to the firm’s “Commercial Vehicle Electrification: To Charge or Not To Charge” report, advances in battery technology, environmental considerations and government policy and the potential for significant operational cost savings will drive adoption of electric trucks trough 2035.

“Initial adoption will likely be in shorter-range hauls with frequent stops and starts, regular and predictable routes, and daily return-to-base for overnight charging types of operations,” says Jim Meil, ACT’s principal of industry analysis. “Early adopters will tend to be in medium duty and highly specialized Class 8 applications that make the current limitations of battery storage technology more manageable.”

courtesy of ACT Research

The agency forecasts penetration rates of electric Class 8s to hover between 1 and 3 percent through 2025 before more than doubling 5 years later and topping double digits in 2035.

Through that timeline, Meil says advancements in battery technology, along with chemistry and design upgrades, will improve performance, drop costs and open up a wider range of trucking applications and duty cycles.

“We see shares reaching about 20 percent for medium duty and double-digits for Class 8 as a ‘most likely’ case by 2035,” he says. “In favorable case circumstances, such as oil and diesel prices escalating as they did in 2005, 2009 and 2011, market take rates for [electric trucks] could get to one-third or higher, depending on the segment.”