Class 8 production and sales expectations are looking up in February, according to ACT Research and the latest release of the North American commercial vehicle forecast.
Citing an improved economic outlook, and despite near-term inventory risks, Kenny Vieth, ACT president and senior analyst, said that the decision to boost the forecast “reflects the industry’s ability to more aggressively sell into Mexico and export markets, while maintaining strength in domestic vocational.”
Vieth added, “The 2024 market is atypically bifurcated: considerable strength remaining in U.S. and Canadian vocational markets and Mexico helps offset otherwise weak demand in U.S. and Canadian tractor markets, LTL excluded.”
Looking at time-sensitive manufacturing loads to haul, pent-up demand, and a strong peso, Vieth explained that the forecast anticipates Mexico-bound Class 8 production will “rise considerably” in 2024.
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“We think the economy’s cooperation, plus the OEMs’ desire to ensure supply-chain integrity by making sure the industry’s labor supply remains largely intact through 2024, adds upside to our higher forecast,” said Vieth.
In contrast, Vieth concluded that the U.S. for-hire truckload, is “unlikely to be helpful in driving volume this year.”
Truck orders this year are expected to come in around 270,000, followed by a dip in 2025. Magnus Koeck, vice president of strategy, marketing and brand management at Volvo Trucks North America, said he expects 2026 will most likely be a record year for the U.S. and Canada truck sales, noting the likelihood of a lingering pre-buy effect and adding that fleets will not wait until 2026 to buy units compliant with tighter 2027 emissions regulations.
“The pre-buy will start earlier. We probably will see that already this year in the back half and into ’25 and, of course, into ’26,” he said. “’27 will be a big dip due to new emissions regulations … with quite a dramatic increase in prices due to the new regulations.”
