The Department of Energy is sticking to its forecast that the average price of a gallon of diesel fuel will drop this year and again next year, predicting in the most recent Short Term Energy Outlook — produced by the DOE’s Energy Information Administration — that diesel fuel will average $3.94 a gallon this year, a 3-cent drop from 2012’s average price.
Moreover, the EIA says the average price will drop to $3.78 cents in 2014, driven by non-OPEC supply growth, particularly in North America, says EIA, and a gradual fall in crude oil prices over the next year or so.
The EIA is forecasting an average retail price of $3.94 for the summer months — April-September — just a penny shy of last year’s average.
Worldwide consumption is expected to jump by about 1 million barrels of oil per day in 2013 over 2012, with a bulk of the growth coming from China and a sliver coming from the U.S. Consumption is also predicted to shoot up again in 2014 by about 1.5 million barrels per day more than 2012’s use.
After a big spike in consumption in 2010, the U.S. actually used less oil in 2011 and 2012, while worldwide consumption was up, again driven by use in China.