Trevor Milton, founder of Nikola Motor Company, unveiled last month the Nikola One at company headquarters in Salt Lake City.Annual electrified powertrain medium and heavy duty truck sales are expected to skyrocket more than 1000 percent over the next 10 years.
A new report from Navigant Research forecasts sales of electrified powertrain medium and heavy duty truck are expected to grow from about 31,000 vehicles in 2016 to nearly 332,000 by 2026.
For North America, David Alexander, senior research analyst with Navigant Research, says he expects growth from about 5,000 units in 2016 to 156,000 in 2026.
“New and established suppliers are starting to offer alternative powertrains as well as complete electric vehicles for niche applications,” he adds. “Limited daily range and a drive cycle featuring a lot of stopping and starting are applications that benefit most from electric drive capabilities, and delivery and refuse collection vehicles are expected to be the primary targets in the short term.”
Compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) are expected to range from 22 percent for hybrid vehicles to 35 percent for plug-in hybrids. Battery EVs are expected to see a CAGR of about 33 percent.
Much of the technology advances and production experience in the bus market can be transferred readily to trucks, Alexander says, and the growing demand for electric cars has stimulated investment in battery manufacture that has resulted in falling battery pack costs, according to the report.
However, even with these positive factors, electric drive trucks are still expected to remain a niche market, at around 5 percent of global sales in 2026.
