North American Class 8 net orders in February reached 17,000 units, a 31% decline from the previous month and a 38% decline year-over-year, according to FTR Transportation Intelligence. The figure significantly lagged seasonal expectations, FTR noted, falling well short of the seven-year February average of 26,912 units.
ACT Research noted a similar trend.
FTR reported that ongoing concerns over tariffs among North American trade partners, along with increasing market uncertainty, appear to have dampened business investment in Class 8 trucks and tractors.
[Related: Tariff plans could disrupt truck production and pre-buying activity]
OEMs across the board experienced significant decline in order activity for February, said Dan Moyer, FTR senior analyst of commercial vehicles. The on-highway market accounted for the bulk of the month-over-month declines, although vocational orders were also down notably month-over-month.
For the first time since the 2025 order season began, FTR’s data showed that cumulative net orders from September 2024 to February 2025 have declined year-over-year, down 3%.
Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research, said that following a strong close to 2024, the past two months have been shaped by trade and economic policy uncertainty, with the new administration introducing challenges to business planning.
Steep U.S. tariffs could substantially increase costs for North American Class 8 trucks/tractors and related components, Moyer added.
“Approximately 45% of all Class 8 trucks built for the U.S. and Canadian markets will be subject to the 25% U.S. tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico and planned Canadian counter tariffs,” Moyer said. “About 40% of U.S. Class 8 trucks are produced in Mexico, and roughly 65% of Canada’s Class 8 trucks are assembled in the U.S.”
“Whether the slowdown in orders is a result of moderating economic activity or a response to the newfound uncertainty remains an open question,” Vieth said.
That uncertainty continues to swirl. President Trump on Wednesday granted a one-month exemption to U.S. automakers on imports from Mexico and Canada, and Thursday postponed 25% tariffs on most goods from Mexico for a month.
[Related: Trucking market remains stable, but recovery is slow amid tariff uncertainty]
Even if those tariffs were lifted permanently, Moyer explained that other cost pressures —such as duties on steel, aluminum, and Chinese imports— remain concerns for the industry.
Combined with upcoming U.S. EPA 2027 NOx regulations, Moyer said tariffs could significantly impact fleet replacement cycles, either by accelerating purchases to avoid future cost increases, or delaying orders due to heightened uncertainty. Based on February’s numbers, it appears that many are opting to wait.
Moyer noted that OEMs and suppliers might explore shifting production strategies to mitigate tariff exposure, but such changes are expensive, complex, and time-consuming, adding further challenges to industry planning.
