A diesel spike tied to the Iran conflict is squeezing carriers hard. With nearly 18% already sidelining trucks and 94% saying fuel costs have materially affected their load decisions, the conditions for accelerating carrier attrition are taking shape.
Nearly 94% of carriers surveyed on DAT’s Convoy Platform said fuel costs had affected their load decisions, and 45% were pursuing shorter routes and lighter loads, according to a March survey of 543 carriers.
“Without fuel hedging, contract pricing, or surcharges, carriers will need to negotiate higher spot rates now to compensate for higher pump prices,” said Ken Adamo, chief of analytics at DAT Freight & Analytics.
“Otherwise, fewer new entrants and more carrier exits are likely, which, paradoxically, could accelerate this supply-side rate recovery,” he said.
The market backdrop
The quarterly U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index – Rates Edition, produced in collaboration with DAT Freight & Analytics, found that spot rates climbed to $2.01 per mile in February 2026, recovering from $1.65 in November 2025, while contract rates edged to $2.12 from $2.02 over the same period.
U.S. Bank/DAT
“What we’re seeing in early 2026 is a freight market beginning to rebalance, with spot rates improving modestly while contract pricing has remained relatively steady,” Adamo said.
The data also points to a notable shrinking gap between contract and spot rates. A year ago, what was once a $0.39 per mile premium for contract rates has shrunk to just $0.11 per mile, representing a compression of roughly $0.28 per mile.
“The narrowing reflects spot rates catching up to contract pricing, leaving shippers with less margin to absorb volatility,” the report said.
Spot leading the charge
Truckload pricing rose in February, according to the report, marking the fourth month in a row that both spot and contract rates increased. Spot rates climbed 3.6%, and contract rates inched up 0.1%.
The spot market saw the sharpest moves.
According to the report, spot linehaul hit a low of $1.57 per mile in May 2025 and has since climbed to $2.01 per mile through February 2026, a $0.44 increase, or roughly 28%, in less than a year.
Contract rates also rose but much more modestly from $1.99 to $2.12 per mile over the same period, an increase of about 6.5%.
This pattern is common as spot markets react to tightening conditions ahead of contract repricing, the report pointed out.
“Rates firmed across lanes even though demand growth was not clearly driven by higher shipment volumes,” it said.
December 2025 saw the most significant shift. Spot linehaul jumped from $1.65 to $1.91 per mile, a 15.76% month-over-month increase, along with a short-term spot volume increase of about 14%. Contract linehaul moved higher, too, rising just under 3% in the same period.
For shippers, this is where budgets get tested, the report said. Once spot rates reset a higher clearing price, contract repricing follows.
[RELATED: Shippers wary of rising transportation costs as fleets put the brakes on spending]
Higher prices, lower volumes
From March 2025 through February 2026, spot linehaul rates increased about 23.3%, and contract rates climbed about 5%.
But volumes moved in the other direction.
Spot volume fell roughly 3.7%, and contract volume dropped 22.1%. Prices went up, while shipping went down, as carriers were more selective, accepting fewer loads at higher rates.
“The market behaved as though capacity was being managed more tightly than demand was growing — consistent with a supply-led shift where carriers protect yield and become more selective,” the report said.
It’s a warning for shippers and carriers as pricing power shifts with tighter capacity, not stronger volume, said Darlene Laferriere, accounts payable analyst at Charles River Labs.
Jeff Pape, head of relationship management for U.S. Bank Freight Payment, noted that DAT’s March 2026 spot market data showed activity declining even as rates rose.
DAT reported declining spot load postings alongside rising truck postings, which pushed load‑to‑truck ratios lower, including a double‑digit week‑over‑week decline in dry van load‑to‑truck ratios in late February.
“In a demand‑driven recovery, rising rates are typically accompanied by rising volumes and improving load‑to‑truck ratios," Pape explained. "Instead, the data shows rates moving higher while activity weakened.”
A true demand-driven shift requires "sustained, broad-based volume growth trending consistently positive across modes and several quarters, not just for a month or two," Adamo said.
Publicly traded carriers in Q4 2025 earnings calls described demand as stable but remained soft and needing more uptick.
Fleets pointed to several strategies, with Knight-Swift asserting “discipline pricing,” while Werner emphasized on selective freight acceptance, and J.B. Hunt noted capacity discipline.
[RELATED: Spot market carriers bear the brunt of the fuel surge]
What this means going forward
The pricing pressure was driven by linehaul and capacity behavior, not fuel surcharges, the report noted. Fuel costs rose just 2.5% year over year, a modest move compared to the rise in spot linehaul.
January and February capacity trends were tracking roughly in line with expectations given the volume, rate and enforcement environment, Adamo said.
But since conditions in the Middle East escalated, he noted that fuel is having a major impact on the final invoice of trucking services, whether it’s through a surcharge on contract freight or the carrier trying to negotiate cost recovery into a spot rate.
The report recommends shippers align routing guides with the right carrier, monitor spot-contract spreads by lane, and build budget flexibility for contracts.
