- 64% of carriers reduced, delayed, or canceled equipment upgrades last year.
- 35% of carriers last year didn't implement a rate adjustment for shipper customers.
- 47% anticipate delaying fleet investment this year due to tariffs.
- 22% of carriers expect tariffs to impact equipment and maintenance.
Nearly all shippers (97%) anticipate that tariffs will raise transportation costs this year, with close to half (48%) expecting tariffs to contribute to higher contract rates and reduced pricing leverage, according to the 2026 State of Transportation Report released by Breakthrough.
The annual survey of 500 U.S. transportation decision-makers (including 350 shippers and 150 carriers) reveals that cost (66%) remains shippers' top consideration when establishing carrier partnerships—rising to its highest level since 2023.
Beyond cost, shippers are placing greater weight on long-term stability and risk mitigation in partner selection. Compared to last year, more shippers are paying attention to carriers’ financial stability, cargo theft and fraud insurance, safety scores, and labor stability, Breakthrough's report found. More than one-third of shippers (34%) are prioritizing partnerships with carriers who demonstrate compliance with emerging regulatory policies, such as English Language Proficiency requirements and other new rules—a focus that reflects a growing awareness that noncompliance could lead to driver shortages, ultimately impacting capacity and service reliability.
Carriers are bracing for a hit to their capital spending plans for the second year in a row. Fleets spent much of last year in search of a freight market rebound but found continued soft demand and sustained rate pressure instead. As a result, 92% of carriers queried by Breakthrough were forced to delay, reduce, or cancel planned investments in 2025, with fleet upgrades and workforce development initiatives taking a significant hit.
Deferred equipment upgrades (64%) was the top initiative carriers reduced, delayed, or canceled in 2025 due to the slower-than-expected freight market rebound. Hiring or workforce expansion (45%) and training or workforce development programs (35%) followed.
With tariffs impacting imported equipment and parts—and continued policy uncertainty expected this year—some carriers will keep investment plans paused for longer than anticipated. Almost half of carriers (47%) predict they will delay 2026 fleet investments due to tariff-related cost pressures, with purchases of new trucks, trailers, and technology most likely to be impacted. More than one-third of motor carriers queried by Breakthrough said they would accelerate investment, while just 5% said they would cancel planned investment entirely.
Nearly two-thirds of shippers and carriers (63%) expect freight rates to increase this year, potentially unlocking investment dollars deeper into the calendar year.
Effect on sustainability
In a climate of regulatory rollbacks and heightening political pressure, the American transportation sector is not backing away from its green commitments. Instead, leaders are turning to sustainability as a primary tool for survival.
According to the 2026 State of Transportation Report, emissions reduction has evolved from a corporate social responsibility metric into a critical lever for network resilience and cost control. The survey reveals that 58% of shippers made "strong" or "exceptional" progress toward sustainability goals over the last year—a significant feat given the persistent inflationary pressures and policy uncertainty.
Greenhushing maturity
The report highlights a growing maturity in the industry, characterized by "greenhushing"—where companies continue to advance sustainability initiatives quietly to avoid political scrutiny while reaping the operational benefits.
- Exceptional progress: Shippers reporting "exceptional" progress jumped 10 points over 2025 to reach 21%.
- Future outlook: 69% of shippers expect to further reduce transportation-related emissions this year.
- Disruption readiness: Confidence remains high, with 91% of leaders stating their organizations are agile and prepared for future shocks.
“As tariff policies, energy markets, and regulatory conditions continue to shift, many transportation leaders are navigating an environment where separating meaningful market signals from short-term noise has become more challenging,” said Heather Mueller, Chief Client Strategy Officer at Breakthrough. “Sustainability is playing a growing role in how leaders manage cost exposure and build long-term resilience into their operations."
Renewable diesel (up 3%) was the only alternative fuel to gain ground in priority from 2025 to 2026. Electric vehicles dropped 4% and renewable natural gas declined 7%.
Tariffs take center stage
For the first time, tariffs surpassed energy prices as the No. 1 economic indicator guiding transportation decisions. Nearly half of industry leaders (49%) expect tariff disputes to disrupt operations in 2026, a concern tied directly to fears of a looming economic recession (36% of leaders predict a recession in 2026, up from 27% in 2025).
“Extreme climate events” fell from the No. 1 most anticipated disruption in 2025 (44%, tied with “supply chain shortages”) to No. 8 (19%) in 2026, according to Breakthrough's report—a decline that reflects a shift toward immediate priorities like cost and policy changes, recency bias following a year with fewer catastrophic weather events, or the perception that such events are difficult to anticipate and prepare for far in advance.
Top Strategies for 2026 Agility
Respondents to Breakthrough's query noted the top areas where tariffs will raise transportation costs in 2026. Higher contract rates or reduced pricing leverage (48%) led the way. Close behind is an increase in customs, duties, and compliance-related expenses (45%), followed by an increased reliance on more expensive modes of transport (43%) and increased pass-through costs from carrier partners (43%).
- Flexible contracting: 50% of organizations are increasing reliance on flexible or short-term contracts to support adaptability.
- AI integration: Adoption of AI-powered freight optimization solutions rose to 37%, up from 28% in 2025.
- Fuel stability: 29% of leaders are now utilizing fuel hedging strategies to manage price volatility—a massive jump from just 9% the previous year.
