U.S. trailer net orders in September reached 10,142 units, a 30% increase from August but still 19% below a year ago, according to FTR Transportation Intelligence.
The monthly total remains significantly below the historical 10-year September average of 29,890 units, which FTR noted was due to weak freight demand, tariff pressures, and pricing uncertainty. Cancellations surged to 25% of gross orders month-over-month, driven primarily by the dry van segment.
FTR anticipates a delayed start to the 2026 order cycle. “The y/y decline in September suggests that some buyers are holding off until freight market conditions improve and/or there is greater clarity regarding trade policy and input costs,” FTR said.
Meanwhile, ACT Research’s preliminary data showed September net orders at 11,300 units. This was 2,300 units above August’s 9,100 and indicates a 25% monthly gain. However, the figure is 5% below last September’s level.
The month-over-month improvement aligns with typical seasonal patterns as the annual cycle begins to move toward stronger order months at the end of Q3 and OEMs begin accepting 2026 orders, noted Jennifer McNealy, director of CV market research and publications at ACT Research.
ACT Research’s estimate showed Q3 net orders totaled 29,200 units, which was 8% above Q3 2024. The year-to-date net order total is nearly 121,200 units, about 20% higher than the same nine-month order intake in 2024.
FTR’s data indicated that year-to-date net trailer orders through September totaled 120,750 units, up 23% compared to the same period in 2024 and averaging approximately 13,400 units monthly. FTR attributes this strength to concentrated demand following the November 2024 election, which boosted activity in the first quarter of 2025.
FTR reported that September trailer production climbed 5% month-over-month and 15% year-over-year to 17,899 units. However, year-to-date production of 151,743 units trails last year’s pace by 19%. Backlogs fell 9% from August and 12% from September 2024, falling to 74,824 units.
“With production continuing to outpace order activity, OEMs face increasing pressure to align output with a softening demand environment as the industry transitions into 2026,” FTR noted.
The U.S. trailer market faces escalating cost pressures and policy uncertainty by global trade tensions, especially with China, said Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, at FTR.
“Separate from a threatened 100% tariff on all imports from China, the U.S. is imposing, effective November 9, a 100% tariff on all imports of certain port cargo handling equipment from China, including intermodal chassis and parts,” Moyer said.
He added that the Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper, which expanded in August to include non-U.S. content in trailers and components, are elevating input costs, squeezing margins, and consolidation pressures.
“Larger, vertically integrated OEMs are better positioned to manage the impact while smaller firms face growing financial strain. Many fleets are delaying replacement, extending equipment life cycles, and slowing or stopping expansion,” Moyer said.
Ongoing concerns, such as softening economic activity, ongoing weak for-hire carrier profitability, and regulatory uncertainty, particularly regarding EPA low-NOx standards, are hurdles to stronger trailer demand, McNealy said.
She also pointed two potential positives for trailers: pent-up demand and possible reallocation of fleets’ capital expenditure.
“With Section 232 tariffs risking cost increases for power-unit expenditures, fleets may be willing to divert capex to trailing equipment purchases deferred over the past few years. At this point, ACT’s expectations are for an improving but still subdued trailer industry outlook,” McNealy said.
