Driven by federal regulatory crackdowns and market attrition rather than economic growth, a sharp contraction in truck freight capacity is pushing shipping costs up while overall volume drops.
- Spending Surges as Volumes Drop: National freight shipments fell 1.1% sequentially and 2.8% year-over-year in Q2 2026, yet shipper spending surged 6.4% quarter-over-quarter and 28.1% year-over-year.
- Supply-Driven Capacity Contraction: Industry executives emphasize that current market tightness is not being driven by a surge in shipping demand, but by severe supply restrictions and a shrinking pool of available drivers.
- Sweeping Federal Enforcement: Regulatory crackdowns have removed thousands of bad actors from the driver pool through ELP enforcement, non-domiciled CDL disqualifications, cabotage visa revocations, and the shutdown of fraudulent CDL schools.
- Sharp Pricing Rebound: Constrained capacity pushed average Q2 spot rates up 18.9% quarter-over-quarter to $3.02 per mile, while contract rates rose 13% to $3.06 per mile.
U.S. truck freight capacity tightened sharply during the second quarter of 2026, driving up freight rates and shipper spending, even as overall shipment volumes continued to fall.
"... It's structurally different than what it was in the past. And so capacity won't grow as fast as it did after the pandemic, and that's why this recovery could last longer than other recoveries." – Schneider President and CEO Jim Filter
According to the latest U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index, national freight shipments dropped 1.1% from the first quarter and fell 2.8% compared with the same period a year earlier. Yet despite lower freight output, total spending by shippers jumped 6.4% quarter over quarter and surged 28.1% year over year.
Truckload volumes declined approximately 2% from last week, according to Traffix's bi-weekly market trends, while intermodal volumes remain about 6% higher than last year as more shippers use rail where pricing and service are a good fit.
"It is increasingly clear that the freight market has changed," said Shelley Simpson, chief executive officer of J.B. Hunt (CCJ Top 250, No. 5), noting that capacity tightened continuously throughout the second quarter this year, marked by a "noticeable step change" following annual federal road checks. Simpson added that while demand is improving gradually, "current market tightness is being driven primarily by supply conditions."
According to the RigDig database, the U.S. carrier population has seen a net loss of more than 50,000 prospects over the last year, even as more than 28,000 verified vehicles came online. RigDig is owned by Fusable, the parent company of CCJ.
The industry has debated issues surrounding driver availability and driver shortages for years, but recent data could not be clearer: The squeeze on available trucks is driven not by an economic surge or increased shipping demand, but by a combination of market attrition following a multiyear freight recession and a sweeping federal regulatory crackdown that has already removed tens of thousands of drivers and noncompliant carriers from the driver pool.
Slowing fleet expansion
Schneider (No. 6) President and Chief Executive Officer Jim Filter pulled up short of calling it a driver shortage, favoring "driver constrained," adding, "The long-haul driver population in the U.S. sits well below long-term averages and near the lowest levels seen over the last decade."
Simpson noted that in certain markets, the driver pool is "as tight as we have ever seen."
The constrained market has created headwinds for driver availability and recruiting across the sector. Werner (No. 14) Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Derek Leathers reported that competition for quality drivers has intensified, limiting the speed at which carriers can rehire or expand fleets.
"Qualified driver hires are more difficult," Leathers said. "As we look forward, that market is tightening."
Andrew Hess, chief financial officer at Knight-Swift (No. 3), noted that with driver availability becoming a utilization and volume challenge, his carrier is taking targeted actions in the current and coming months on driver pay with the goal of improving seated truck count.
Where are the drivers going?
Federal and state regulators have launched an unprecedented crackdown on noncompliant motor carriers and unqualified commercial drivers, removing thousands of individuals and trainers from the supply chain in an effort to restore safety and fairness to the industry, according to a report by the Trucking Association Executives Council (TAEC).
Federal authorities have targeted driver training and licensing standards by removing nearly 10,000 noncompliant commercial driver's license (CDL) schools from the federal registry and shutting down 550 fraudulent driver training schools. Meanwhile, more than 27,000 truck drivers were placed out of service nationwide after federal officials reinstated and enhanced enforcement of English language proficiency rules.
Regulatory scrutiny has also targeted non-domiciled CDL eligibility, with new federal rules set to disqualify more than 194,000 existing non-domiciled CDL holders — roughly 97% of the total — over a multiyear period, alongside immediate revocations in several states.
"We know that there's still about one-third of the non-domiciled drivers remaining that we would expect to be removed," Filter said. "The first two-thirds came out faster than we anticipated. But if Delilah's Law is enacted, we could see that capacity exit abruptly. And now we have the end of the broker preemption. That may remove some carriers with unsatisfactory conditional ratings. That's a few percent of capacity... We believe roughly half of the noncompliant capacity is left with the remaining impact of supply expected to exit through next year."
Increased oversight of cabotage restrictions — which prohibit foreign drivers from hauling loads between two points within the U.S. — resulted in 3,200 visa revocations, according to U.S. Bank's report. Regulators also completed 704 high-risk carrier investigations, leading 430 carriers to voluntarily cease operations and forcing 60 to 70 noncompliant carriers to shut down permanently. FMCSA has removed 96 noncompliant electronic logging devices (ELDs) from its registered list since January 2025, including 58 devices this year, and blocked 426 noncompliant platforms from entering the marketplace.
Leathers estimated that carrier exits are "still in the early innings," agreeing with Filter that the industry might just be over one-third of the way through them.
"And so when you take not just what's behind us, but what's in front of us, it's going to be a dramatic change, and this also changed the top of the funnel," Filter added. "And so it's structurally different than what it was in the past. And so capacity won't grow as fast as it did after the pandemic, and that's why this recovery could last longer than other recoveries."
The shrinking driver and fleet supply has led to a sharp rebound in freight pricing. Data from DAT Freight & Analytics showed spot rates jumped 18.9% in the second quarter to an average of $3.02 per mile — up 41.1% from year-earlier levels. Contract rates rose 13% quarter over quarter to $3.06 per mile, a 20.9% increase compared with the second quarter of 2025. High diesel prices also contributed to elevated shipping bills, with fuel costs averaging 75 cents per mile.
Regionally, the capacity disconnect was most pronounced in the Southwest, where shipment volumes dropped 20.2% year over year while shipper spending spiked 39.9%. Analysts attributed the regional disparity to heavy cross-border enforcement and visa cancellations along the Mexican border.
Tender rejections have fallen to 13.6%, showing some improvement in available capacity, according to Traffix's bi-weekly market trends. However, the number is still well above 10%, meaning carriers still have flexibility when choosing which loads to accept.
