The trucking market is transitioning away from the flush capacity seen from 2022 to 2025 toward a stricter standard focused on "defensible capacity," according to the most recent 2026 Mile Marker report released by Triumph.
Backed by data from the Triumph Freight Transaction Indices, the report highlights that heightened regulatory oversight, rigorous identity verification, and strict compliance enforcement are redefining which motor carriers and drivers can be utilized with confidence.
"For years, discussions about capacity centered on whether trucks and drivers existed," said Ben Volkwyn, executive vice president, head of enterprise data and intelligence for Triumph. "Increasingly, the question isn't whether capacity is available. It's whether capacity is trustworthy."
Rising buy rates amid tightening standards
Federal safety initiatives—including intense enforcement of commercial driver's license (CDL) issuance, English-language proficiency (ELP) standards, and electronic logging device (ELD) compliance—have resulted in a contracting pool of available carriers and drivers. Consequently, average broker buy rates have risen across major equipment types.
According to the RigDig database, the U.S. carrier population has seen a net loss of more than 50,000 prospects in just more than a year, even as more than 28,000 verified vehicles came online. RigDig is owned by Fusable, the parent company of CCJ.
According to August 2026 data from the Triumph Freight Transaction Indices:
Van rates reached $2.92 per mile, standing 45.1% above August 2025 levels.
Reefer rates settled at $3.39 per mile, reflecting a 43.8% year-over-year increase.
Flatbed rates stood at $3.78 per mile, maintaining the highest year-over-year inflation among major modes at 48.0% above July 2025 levels.
While average buy rates climbed, median broker margins per load remained compressed—standing at 13.7% for vans, 11.0% for reefers, and 14.7% for flatbeds in August. Despite per-load margin pressures, total market volume and aggregate broker margins grew into the spring season, driven by spot-market demand as route-guide performance weakened.
A longer road to recovery
Unlike prior cycles where markets self-corrected within one to two years, Triumph's analysis suggests that the 2026 regulatory reset will extend the recovery timeline.
"Recovery will likely take longer than in prior cycles because rebuilding capacity now requires more than the pre-Covid playbook of higher labor rates, recruitment incentives, and additional Class 8 equipment," the report notes. Triumph anticipates that 2027 will continue the capacity reset, with 2028 marking the first year early effects of the reframing become visible.
Volkwyn noted that it will be harder and more expensive for new carriers to enter the freight market due to the list of policy, enforcement, and compliance hurdles they need to clear, even with broker buy rates rising across all equipment types. Fraudulent or weakly documented carriers may exit the market as identity controls become more rigorous, crating churn among the trucking population.
