The surge in diesel prices continues to drive the spot market. Spot truckload rates edged lower across dry van, refrigerated, and flatbed equipment last week, according aggregate to industry data.
DAT Freight & Analytics’ seven-day average broker-to-carrier spot rates slipped across the board for the week ending Sept. 12: Dry van fell 2 cents to $2.92 per mile, refrigerated dropped 3 cents to $3.50, and flatbed slid 6 cents to $3.48. Load posts totaled 2.5 million for the week, down 17% from the prior week, while equipment posts fell 14% to 153,509 as the Labor Day holiday trimmed both capacity and loads.
Truckstop.com and FTR Transportation Intelligence reported a similar story of a soft, holiday-distorted week. Total load activity fell 15.2% week over week, largely because the period included Labor Day. Truck postings fell 7.1%, pushing the Market Demand Index — the ratio of loads to trucks — to its lowest level of the year. Dry van rates rose 5.5 cents, refrigerated gained 2.7 cents, and flatbed fell 5.7 cents.
“Flatbed spot rates returned to their downward trend after rising during the previous week for the first time in 12 weeks,” FTR said. “The next couple of weeks at least typically are soft for all equipment types, but the need for fuel cost recovery could raise the floor.”
[RELATED: Surging diesel and tightening capacity continue to push rates higher]
Diesel surge
Both firms pointed out that the diesel figure in the fuel surcharge is already outdated. DAT’s calculation used the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s national average on-highway diesel price of $5.599 a gallon for the week ending Aug. 31, down 5.3 cents from the previous week. Truckstop’s surcharge used a more recent figure based on the weekly average diesel price of $5.967 a gallon logged during the week ended Sept. 7.
Neither comes close to matching current figures. According to the EIA’s latest report, as of Sept. 14, the national average price for a gallon of diesel increased by more than 30 cents to $6.285.
Capacity remains tight
The ACT Research Driver Availability Index tightened to 35.9 in August and spot equipment capacity reached decade lows.
“Tighter capacity and a modest improvement in demand are likely to keep upward pressure on freight rates over the next 12 to 18 months,” said ACT Research Vice President and Senior Analyst Tim Denoyer. “New broker liability laws and FMCSA driver regulations are raising barriers to entry, and while Class 8 tractor production is increasing, fleet growth will remain slow as replacement demand and elevated exports limit expansion.”
While the recent $120 billion in tariff refunds may provide a temporary boost to freight demand and support the long-awaited inventory restock, Denoyer said the underlying supply constraints remain the primary drivers of current market dynamics.
"With contract rates now offering a significant cost advantage over private fleets and ongoing regulatory changes ahead, we expect the ‘stronger for longer’ for-hire rate cycle to persist," he said, "even as risks from rising fuel prices and interest rates remain elevated.”
Segment winners and losers
While the market was generally soft this week, flatbed remained strong. The holiday Monday cut posting volume across the board, DAT noted, so load and truck counts fell together.
Dean Croke, principal analyst at DAT Freight & Analytics, pointed out that flatbed truck posts fell 16.3%, outpacing an 11.6% decline in load posts as capacity left the market faster than freight did. This pushed the flatbed load-to-truck ratio to 38.47 from 36.44, compared to 21.29 a year ago. That made flatbed the only segment to tighten during the holiday week.
On the broader capacity outlook, Croke said truck availability is down 40.2% from a year ago for van, 34.5% for reefer, and 38.6% for flatbed. At 153,509 total equipment posts, this was the lowest Week 37 figure in DAT’s records. He noted that the van load-to-truck ratio of 10.95 was a record for this week of the year, compared to 5.33 last year and 6.20 at the 2021 peak.
Despite the holiday slowdown, Croke said demand is holding up, with van load posts running 23% above last year, reefer up 40.7%, and flatbed up 11%.
Looking ahead, according to DAT iQ’s 35-day RateCast forecast, mid-October linehaul rates are projected to jump significantly over last year’s figures. Croke noted forecasts of $2.20 a mile for van, $2.65 for reefer, and $2.59 for flatbed — up 52, 57, and 54 cents year over year.
