A proposed high-risk motor carrier list currently facing federal regulators could upend U.S. trucking capacity and serve as a death sentence for thousands of transportation companies practically overnight.
Transportation Intermediaries Association (TIA) last week called on the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration to establish a uniform safety standard for picking trucking companies, filing a petition for for rulemaking for the establishment of a federal Motor Carrier Safety Selection Standard and the public release of a High-Risk Motor Carrier List to flag unsafe trucking companies.
The fallout for flagged companies would be swift and absolute.
"If they publish that list, those high-risk carriers are essentially done for," said Avery Vise, vice president of trucking at FTR.
A significant issue, he said, is the absence of a “safe harbor” standard for brokers.
"Whether they get a safe harbor or not, clearly [brokers] cannot take a carrier that is on that list … that list essentially would be sort of an obituary list for every carrier on that list," Vise said.
Carriers with risk profiles would not be able to remain in business, Vise noted, as choosing one could be viewed as negligent selection in subsequent litigation.
The pressure on carrier selection standards reached a boiling point following the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling in Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II, leaving brokers vulnerable to negligent selection lawsuits.
Brokerages for years operated under the assumption that active Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration authority was enough to clear a carrier for a load.
TIA claims SCOTUS's unanimous decision created an expectation that brokers and shippers independently verify if a trucking company is safe to use, despite lacking reliable or complete data. The group noted that more than 90% of authorized motor carriers currently operate without an FMCSA safety rating and argues this effectively forces private brokers and shippers to act as regulatory enforcement eyes for the government without clear rules or enough guidance.
The proposed high-risk list is not the only regulatory mechanism squeezing drivers out of the market. The FMCSA has initiated a multi-front enforcement strategy that is reshaping the truck population.
A strict crackdown on non-domiciled CDLs alongside rigid English language proficiency requirements has disrupted the cross-border driver pool. FTR estimates the industry may have lost more than 50,000 foreign drivers who have either exited the market out of fear or shifted from over-the-road lanes to local routes.
Simultaneously, the agency is targeting fraudulent and chameleon operations via its new Motus anti-fraud registration system, removing unqualified CDL training programs from the federal registry and tightening hours-of-service compliance by banning ineffective electronic logging devices.
However, it is the impending legal exposure of carrier selection that threatens the heaviest blow to capacity. If the TIA's petition forces the FMCSA's hand on a high-risk list, the sudden blacklisting of unsafe fleets could trigger further supply-side contraction, pushing already high contract and spot rates well into record territory through 2027.
