Article Summary
Commercial trailer production remained steady in June despite dipping monthly demand, but industry analysts warn fleets to brace for rising equipment prices due to skyrocketing input costs.
- Seasonal demand dip: U.S. heavy-duty trailer orders dropped 28% month over month to 14,474 units in June, though the volume remained solid by outperforming the 10-year average for the month by 8%.
- Cautious production strategies: Manufacturers are maintaining a replacement-driven recovery rather than a fleet expansion cycle, holding June factory builds nearly flat year over year to keep supply tightly aligned with demand.
- Soaring raw material costs: Driven by April's Section 232 tariff changes, the producer price index for aluminum production has skyrocketed 57.8% since January 2025, significantly outpacing the price shocks of 2022.
- Impending price hikes: Because of standard historical time lags between raw material spikes and finished manufacturing, finished commercial trailer prices—already up 10% since January 2025—are expected to climb through the end of the year.
U.S. demand for heavy-duty commercial trailers cooled in June but remained solid for a seasonally slow month, though escalating trade tariffs and rising material costs are poised to push equipment prices higher through the end of the year, according to industry analysts.
Net orders fell 28% month over month to 14,474 units, commercial vehicle data firm FTR reported. However, order volume rose 14% year over year and outpaced the 10-year June average of 13,379 units by 8%.
Motor carriers added more than 8,700 trailers in the second quarter of this year, according to data from RigDig, a company owned CCJ parent company Fusable.
Analysts noted the monthly pullback likely indicates that stronger order intake in April and May was temporary rather than a sustainable new run rate. With summer typically acting as a slow period for the industry, demand is unlikely to improve meaningfully until manufacturers open for 2027 orders around September.
ACT Research
The atypical strength in orders in April and May reflects improving trucking fundamentals, buttressed by rising freight rates, said Jennifer McNealy, ACT Research director commercial vehicle market research & publications.
Refrigerated vans and flatbeds drove the bulk of June’s annual growth, while dry van demand weakened after several months of solid orders. Nearly all other trailer segments improved compared to last year.
Manufacturers are maintaining a cautious stance, keeping production closely aligned with demand. June factory builds rose 6% from May to 17,633 units but lagged last year's figures by 1%. Year-to-date production remained nearly flat, down 0.5% year over year to 97,165 units.
Industry experts say the market is locked in a selective, replacement-driven recovery rather than a broad capacity expansion cycle. The RigDig's database shows the U.S. carrier population has lost nearly 34,000 trailers over the past 12 months.
While stronger freight rates have bolstered fleet confidence, freight volume growth remains limited, and many carriers are still working to rebuild margins. Low order cancellations indicate stable commitments from buyers, but strong demand for Class 8 trucks is diverting some fleet capital away from trailers.
Compounding the gradual nature of the recovery are excess trailer capacity, high financing costs, elevated equipment prices, and uneven carrier profitability.
Small fleets spent less on trucks and trailers in 2025 than they did in 2024, according to the American Transportation Research Institute, whereas truckload fleets with more than 1,000 trucks spent 16.1% more. Preliminary data from the first quarter of 2026 indicate that most of the 2025 cost trends continued into this year.
A primary driver of long-term headwind is the rising cost of raw materials, triggered by recent trade policy shifts.
“Cost pressure on the trailer market continues to mount from Section 232 steel and aluminum tariff changes in April and announced or pending antidumping and countervailing duties actions on van-type trailers and subassemblies,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst of commercial vehicles at FTR.
Moyer noted that while the June Producer Price Index, or PPI, for trailers was nearly flat month over month, a sharp spike in the revised May index suggests that policy-related costs are already bleeding into finished equipment prices.
“The main risk from these recent and pending policy decisions is that trailer sourcing shifts faster than domestic capacity can adjust,” Moyer said. “OEMs and suppliers with U.S.-based production could gain share and pricing power, but a sharp pullback from affected imports could tighten availability, extend lead times, and raise costs.”
Data from the federal government underlines the severity of the input cost spike. According to an analysis of the PPI by Jason Miller, supply chain management professor at Michigan State University, the price index for alumina and aluminum production and processing has soared 57.8% since January 2025 and is up 52.3% year over year.
Miller noted this surge is significantly steeper than the price shock seen in 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Consequently, the PPI for truck trailers and chassis with axle ratings of 10,000 pounds or more has climbed 10% since January 2025 and sits 8.8% higher year over year. Due to standard historical time lags between raw material spikes and finished goods manufacturing, trailer prices are expected to climb further.
“Price increases for truck trailers have a long way to rise due to higher prices for inputs,” Miller said, warning trucking companies that capital investment plans for expanding trailer fleets will face significantly higher prices for the foreseeable future.
