According to industry analysts, the typical peak shipping season has turned on its head, with the freight surge occurring months earlier than usual, and leaving carriers facing a different fourth quarter landscape.
“We actually think we’ve already seen peak season, certainty on the import containerized front. That occurred in July where record volumes on imported containers were recorded,” said Dean Croke, principal analyst at DAT Freight and Analytics. “Our view is the majority of holiday season inventory is already positioned in warehouse distribution markets ready for final-mile delivery.”
The National Retail Federation noted a similar assessment. “This year’s peak season has come and gone, largely due to retailers frontloading imports ahead of reciprocal tariffs taking effect,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy.
The numbers highlighted this: According to the Global Port Tracker, U.S. ports handled 2.39 million TEU in July. In contrast, October is forecast at just 1.97 million TEU, with November expected to drop 19.2% and December projected to hit 1.72 million TEU.
This shift is driven by tariff-related distortions, said Avery Vise, FTR vice president of trucking.
“Due to tariff-related distortions, some of the strength that usually occurs in September and October appears to have occurred already, so we believe peak arrived earlier than usual,” Vise said.
Gold emphasized an ongoing challenge. “Most retailers are well-stocked for the holiday season and doing as much as they can to shield their customers from the costs of tariffs for as long as they can.”
However, this is temporary. Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett cautioned, “Many large companies preemptively imported goods to build up inventories, but as those stockpiles are depleted, the full inflationary impact of the tariffs will become apparent.”
A flatter, more fragmented peak season
Rather than a sharp surge, 2025’s peak season is expected to be flatter. Vise said, thanks to "continued high prices and a weakening labor market, we also anticipate a flatter peak season than typical, and retailers appear to be thinking that way too.”
Joe Henderson, senior director of technology alliances at Deposco, also added, “Peak demand pulled forward this year, but that doesn’t mean ‘over’—it means more even, more fragmented. Our Peak 2025 data shows retailers smoothing volumes with earlier buys and promo-driven micro-surges, so the next 60–90 days favor carriers that optimize reliability and visibility over pure price.”
Consumer behavior adding uncertainty
Consumer purchasing patterns are also shifting freight demand. According to project44’s 2025 State of Consumer Holiday Shopping report, 80% of shoppers worry tariffs will increase prices. More than 70% say they will adjust by buying fewer gifts, choosing cheaper alternatives, or even switching to domestic products if imports become too costly.
Jenna Slagle, senior data analyst at project44, noted, “Many shoppers are delaying purchases this year, with 10% fewer planning to shop before October compared to 2024. This trend reflects a desire to take advantage of promotions such as Black Friday and Cyber Monday.”
Retailers are increasing the number of carriers they work with, Slagle said. “Carrier diversification has risen 13% year over year, indicating that retailers are positioning themselves to manage this shift without major disruption.”
Delayed shopping can add volume to November and December, Slagle noted, which are already traditionally the highest-volume months for last-mile delivery.
What carriers should do
Henderson said to prepare for volatility. “Policy shifts on tariffs, a stronger promo cadence, or a consumer uptick—each can re-tighten capacity quickly.”
“Carriers who integrate cleanly, communicate exceptions fast, and pivot with shipper orchestration will capture the steadier share of wallet when the spike becomes a series of waves,” he added.
As consumer caution and tariff-related uncertainty continue, Slagle noted that this softer demand will impact the freight market in several ways:
- Lower volumes across parcel, less-than-truckload, and truckload segments.
- Softer spot market pricing as carriers lower rates to attract freight in an environment of underutilized capacity.
- Continued pressure on carriers to prioritize contracted freight over spot freight, reinforcing downward pressure on spot rates.
