Cross-freight conditions improved modestly, but shipping across borders is still more difficult than normal, according to the latest NAX Index from freight brokerage TRAFFIX.
The index, which combines more than 10 economic, freight and trade indicators into one score, came in at 57 for Canada, down from 58 in September, and 54 for Mexico, down from 55. Any reading above 50 signals tighter conditions: higher costs, lower capacity and heavier regulatory challenges. Both corridors improved from the previous month, but neither is close to the easier conditions below 50.
The NAX Index tracks market pressure for moving freight across the U.S.-Canada and U.S.-Mexico borders. The Index remains over 50 indicating tighter conditions in moving freight. TRAFFIX
TRAFFIX breaks the NAX into four pillars:
- Demand is soft [46], so there are fewer shipments moving. Lower demand has helped reduce strain on the market, though the report noted that it has not been enough to meaningfully improve truck availability.
- Capacity is still the biggest problem [66] as even with fewer loads, shippers still have fewer alternatives if their primary carrier is unavailable.
- Costs remained steady [52], but high diesel prices keep fuel surcharges and limit costs from coming down.
- Policy have eased [52, down from last month's 80], but existing trade measures still affect duties, product classifications, and landed costs for some U.S.-Canada shipments.
[RELATED: Fuel tax relief proposals languish in Congress with prices breaking records]
Why Canada is tighter than Mexico
Canada takes more planning than Mexico, the report noted, especially for capacity and total landed costs. Mexico is the easier of the two, though limited truck availability can still affect pickup options and pricing.
Both countries face uncertainty over the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), but Canada’s situation has become “more immediate,” said Alex Fuller, vice president of commercial intelligence at TRAFFIX.
In August, the U.S. imposed tariffs of up to 50% on selected Canadian goods, and Canada countered with 15%, 25% and 50% on $27.6 billion of U.S. imports beginning Sept. 8. It intensified further as the U.S. banned roughly $1 billion of Canadian goods on Sept. 29. Mexico still faces uncertainty on the future of USMCA, particularly around automotive rules of origin, steel and aluminum, but U.S.-Mexico talks have continued through multiple rounds.
“Canada was already the more difficult corridor from a truck capacity standpoint,” said Fuller, and the tariffs are layering additional cost and planning complexity.
Fuller said he sees freight being pulled forward, delayed and rerouted, adding that these are “targeted responses rather than a broad change in overall freight demand.”
In conversations with customers, Fuller said some shippers are building inventory early, others are being more cautious about inventory to avoid being overstocked, and more are testing intermodal on eligible long-haul freight.
Some Canadian manufacturers also shipped early ahead of new restrictions, and certain U.S.-Canada flows are shifting geographically, he added.
What's limiting trucks at the border
Shrinking driver availability continues to be a pressure point for trade flows between Mexico and the U.S., according to C.H. Robinson’s Freight Market Update: October 2026. Mexico’s National Cargo Transportation Association reports 25,000 Mexican drivers have lost U.S. B-1 visas. In addition, two short disruptions at certain crossings along the border reduced capacity at some points in September.
Some relief could by inbound if orders for new entrants and truck orders are any indicator. Following three consecutive quarters of contraction, the U.S. commercial trucking sector rebounded in Q3, welcoming close to 10,000 new prospective fleets and over 229,000 units of verified equipment, according to the RigDig database. New vehicles drove the primary growth within the U.S. trucking sector during the quarter ending last month.
Border compliance requirements that are being rolled out gradually may have also caused longer dwell times at crossings, further reducing capacity. The report added that hurricane season in Mexico, which is active through November, is also another planning variable.
