Spot vs. contract: Diverging freight rates and squeezed volume

The latest quarterly U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index – Rates Edition, produced in collaboration with DAT Freight & Analytics, shows that contract and spot rates followed divergent paths from June through August 2026. While contract rates steadily increased, spot rates moderated from summer peaks.

According to the report, dry van spot rates decreased from $2.38 per mile in June to $2.35 in July and $2.17 in August. Contract rates moved higher over the same period, rising from $2.30 per mile in June to $2.38 in July and $2.39 in August. By August, contract rates carried a premium of roughly $0.22 per mile over spot freight.

Fuel costs also played a growing role in overall transportation spending. Average fuel surcharge rates increased from $0.62 per mile in June to $0.70 in August, elevating total freight costs even as spot linehaul pricing softened.

Patrick Pretorius, general manager of the shipper segment at DAT, noted that fuel made up about 21% of the per-mile broker-to-shipper spot rate on dry van loads in June. By August, he said, it was 24%, and diesel is trending higher into the fall.

"Higher fuel costs push smaller, thinner-margin carriers out of the market, which adds to an already shrinking driver pool," Pretorius said. "Shippers who've spent two years squeezing rate per mile would do well to shift focus to consolidation and network planning, as the market is tightening from two directions at once.”

Jason Cannon has written about trucking and transportation for more than a decade and serves as Chief Editor of Commercial Carrier Journal. A Class A CDL holder, Jason is a graduate of the Porsche Sport Driving School, an honorary Duckmaster at The Peabody in Memphis, Tennessee, and a purple belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu. Reach him at [email protected].