Truckload rates kept climbing year over year in Q2 2025, but growth slowed again, with peak season adding further market fluctuations, according to RXO’s The Curve report, a proprietary index measuring performance and macroeconomic indicators in the market.
The report indicated an extension of similar trends from 2023: “A muted demand picture leading to lower freight volumes, waning carrier capacity, and a prolonged stable rate environment (though they are increasing on a year-over-year basis).”
RXO The Curve
The report indicated that spot rates increased 6.5% year over year in Q2 2025, slightly less than the 9.1% in Q1 2025. Contract rates, meanwhile, rose 1.1% year over year, down slightly from 1.4% in Q1.
Seasonal shipping events such as produce season, Memorial Day, CVSA International Roadcheck and Independence Day caused temporary volatility, though rates quickly returned to baseline afterward.
“Though we are in an inflationary rate environment, Q2 was still primarily a shippers’ market,” the report noted.
It also pointed out that carriers continue to feel cost pressures, while shippers had relatively high tender acceptance rates, easy capacity and slight rate increases in their RFPs.
Macroeconomic factors
Tariffs and trade policy continue to be the biggest source of uncertainty, the report noted. Industrial production and imports both declined in the second quarter, which tracks with weaker freight volumes.
Unlike the last inflationary period from 2020 to 2021, surging freight demand drove rates higher. Current macroeconomic outlook seems to be less about strong demand and more about shrinking supply.
“It’s more likely that supply-side constraints (carrier attrition) will likely be the driving force,” the report said.
Any tariff de-escalation could spur increased demand and supply chain volatility during peak season, it added.
Q3 2025 truckload market forecast
As for trends shaping the truckload market, the report pointed out that conditions remain largely unchanged: sluggish freight volumes, little difference between contract and spot rates, fewer Class 8 truck orders, and ongoing carrier job losses.
“The persistence of these low rates, both in contract and spot, is placing an immense amount of pressure on carriers," the report stated. "If (and likely, when) enough carriers get driven out of the market, it will trigger a rise in spot rates, but the timeline for the flip keeps getting pushed out given weak conditions.”
English language proficiency regulations could also lead to an evident reduction in the overall driver pool and constrain capacity.
Looking ahead, the report noted that RXO expects carrier capacity to continue exiting the market. While contract rates were up modestly year over year in Q2, spot rates are poised to rise faster, eventually surpassing contract rates.
“This divergence will drive volatility as cash-trapped carriers look to increase profitability after a very difficult two years,” the report said.
It said either more exits or a demand uptick would accelerate rate increases.
Spot rates trail contract rates for now, but if they flip in Q3, shippers could face pressure later in the year, it said.
The extent of any inflationary spike, the report pointed out, will depend on tariffs, how shippers and carriers respond, consumer demand, and the strength of peak season.
Conversely, DAT Chief of Analytics Ken Adamo said in a recent release that there’s no major indication of changes in the truckload market, aside from seasonal bumps and tactics by shippers managing tariffs.
“There are carriers with low-cost structures and steady customers that are negotiating better contracts,” Adamo said, “but in general, there’s a feeling that volumes and rates are stuck. Barring some major event, there’s nothing to suggest that’s going to change any time soon.”
