Political upheaval and a stagnant economy have strangled what was expected to be a relatively strong year for heavy truck orders, and there are no meaningful signs of a rebound on the horizon.
“This is quite a big downturn," noted Magnus Koeck, vice president of strategy, marketing, and brand management at Volvo Trucks North America. The highs enjoyed immediately following the COVID pandemic were followed by cratering economic conditions and weak freight demand that have lingered and choked off demand for new semi-tractors.
"The customers are reluctant now to buy trucks," Koeck added, "and we will probably see that for some more time."
Fleets have resorted to holding on to trucks longer, pushing the average age for long- and regional-haul trucks to roughly 6.5 years, according to registration data. The average age for a regional truck is about 6.8 years – an age not seen since 2017. Long haul trucks are about 6.4 years old, up from 6.1 years last year but still within a comparable 6-year age range that dates back more than a decade. Trucks briefly dipped into a 5-year-old range in 2022 and 2023 (5.9 years) following the clearing of production logjams caused by the pandemic.
Questions that continue to swirl around tariffs and emissions are doing no favors for order books for this year and next.
"It’s hard to navigate as an OEM when we don’t have all the facts," he added.
Orders off pace
The five-year average order intake in North America is 285,000 units, with an average downturn total of about 212,000. Koeck said 2025 demand is pacing below the downturn mark heading into historically strong order months in the last part of the year—totals that can give an indication of the health of the following year.
"By mid-December, we will have a very good outlook for what next year is going to bring us," he said, "but we are at a significantly lower level (now) when it comes to orders.”
When the proverbial dam busts, Koeck said Volvo dealers, who have invested more than $1 billion in the network, will be ready.
"The only thing we know is the tide will turn," he said. "The question is when. Over time, the goods transported by truck are always going up."
Volvo delivered about 26,000 units in the U.S., and the North American market is the only global market where Volvo isn't the market share leader. To attack the North American market, Koeck noted the company has invested $2 billion into the new VNL, launched a retooled VNR, will soon launch a VNL Electric model, and has pumped $400 million into production facilities in Dublin, Virginia, and Hagerstown, Maryland.
