
Seeking signs of relief during a four-year freight recession, American Trucking Associations President and CEO Chris Spear said higher fuel prices as a result at the conflict in Iran threaten any chance of a trucking recovery in 2026.
“The situation is having a very direct impact on our industry,” said Spear during an address to attendees at ATA’s Technology & Maintenance Council’s 2026 annual meeting in Nashville as the price of diesel has increased by a dollar per gallon in the two weeks since Operation Epic Fury began. “WTI and Brent [crude] are about $105 a gallon and probably no end in sight until there is some indication from this president that we are going to start them back down. And I'm thinking we're probably a few days, if not weeks from that happening… The seriousness this operation is having on the supply chain, namely fuel costs, is significant.”
Spear also said the availability of diesel exhaust fluid could be threatened by the conflict in the Middle East, where 45 percent of DEF is produced. “When you have that much of the product coming out of the exact same place where we are in conflict, the availability of DEF is a game changer for our industry,” he said. “You can always pay more for fuel, but DEF is another factor that we've got to be paying attention to in hopes that there's not a shortage long-term."
Spear told attendees he was anticipating an uptick in the economy in 2026 ahead of mid-term elections in November, but he cast doubt on that happening now. “I'm not seeing that, candidly,” he said. “This is the direct opposite... I hope the [administration’s] goals are achieved. I have great faith in the military that they are successful in their mission set, but that we can move on from this in the coming days and weeks to get back to the domestic elements of what our industry's focused on.”
Turning his remarks to domestic issues, Spear called for a 16-year extension of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement that went into effect during Trump’s first administration and is currently under review through July.
“The terms and conditions of the USMCA are very critical to trucking. We moved seven and a half million proxies over the Mexican border alone just last year. That's 85% of the road surface freight is being moved by trucks. This is no small matter. So a 16-year extension in USMCA would give us certainty, vision, the ability to plan and build accordingly… I understand there are elements of the agreement that are not favorable to this White House. That's fine, that's what a review is for. Sit down, focus on those problems, work with Mexico, work with Canada, and let's get this agreement going forward."
Spear commended Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum for her work with the current administration on a host of issues including border security, immigration and stemming the flow of narcotics from Mexico to the United States but noted she’s “doing it a bit different than some of the other leaders around the world.”
“Our president likes to see the things that he wants done getting done, in contrast to the Prime Minister of Canada, to some degree, almost the opposite of that,” he continued. “And you can see the conflict between the two and why that matters in terms of getting this 16-year [USMCA] extension done.”










