Class 8 preliminary truck orders saw an upswing in February, with FTR preliminary net orders at 47,200 units—a 47% jump from January and a 159% leap from a year ago. ACT Research pegged February orders at 46,200 units, up 156% year over year.
FTR reported the figure as the strongest order month since September 2022 and the third straight month of 20% year-over-year order growth, while ACT Research called it the eighth-best order month in its dataset of 44 years.
Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research, cited an aging fleet, looming EPA 2027 cost increases, and growing confidence that “the winter run-up freight rates will remain sticky.”
Vieth suggested that the combination of higher future compliance costs and an improved profitability outlook may explain the February figures, as dealers and large fleets saw incentive to find capital now rather than wait.
A critical factor to the order turnaround has been the sustained run-up in spot rates that started in late November, Vieth said.
“February’s very solid year-over-year increase in net orders extended the firmer tone that has been building since late last year,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles at FTR.
While some of February’s demand may still reflect deferred replacement purchases coming back to the market, Moyer said, the “consistency and breadth of recent order activity suggest momentum is now being driven more meaningfully by improving freight fundamentals.”
Freight volumes and utilization are trending up, Moyer noted, while FTR’s rate forecasts have improved, and fleets are gaining clarity around both tariff-adjusted pricing and EPA 2027 NOx regulations.
These factors suggest that hesitation has reduced and encouraged more fleets to plan capital, Moyer said.
“Order patterns increasingly suggest a structured replacement cycle and forward-looking fleet planning rather than short-term catch-up buying, underscoring healthier underlying demand,” he added.
FTR reported that February’s estimate nearly doubled the 10-year February average of 24,991 units, with both on-highway and vocational markets contributing to the monthly and yearly growth in orders. Orders have now totaled 258,466 units over the last 12 months.
The 2026 order season (September 2025 through February 2026) posted 4% year-over-year growth, FTR reported, a significant improvement from the double-digit declines earlier in the cycle.
“The steady narrowing of the year-over-year deficit in recent months and strengthening freight conditions suggest that the market is not only stabilizing but also transitioning into the early stages of a cyclical recovery,” FTR noted.
However, FTR pointed out that headwinds remain, including elevated financing costs, the freight recovery’s durability, and tariff or regulatory shifts that could disrupt momentum. Most recently, geopolitical risks such as the ongoing Middle East conflict could add further uncertainty.
“Aside from those risks, the sustained and increasingly freight-driven strength in orders reinforces the case that underlying demand is firming more decisively as 2026 progresses,” FTR said.
On the medium-duty side, Vieth said preliminary Classes 5-7 orders rose 6.7% year-over-year to 17,400 units in February.
“Given last year was the weakest month for February orders since 2013, easy comps rather than meaningful medium-duty improvement seems the likeliest explanation for y/y outperformance,” Vieth said.
