Spot rates across all three truckload equipment types are tracking well above prior years through mid-2026, with flatbed hitting a record level. According to FTR Transportation Intelligence, the strength has nothing to do with a freight volume boom, but a supply-side in disarray.
"Obviously, it is not really the amount of volume that is in the system that is driving this," said Avery Vise, vice president of trucking at FTR, during the firm's "State of Freight" webinar Thursday. "It is the amount of disruption and obviously, tight capacity."
FTR is projecting that spot rates will end 2026 approximately 30% higher year over year across all three equipment types: dry van up 29.6%, refrigerated up 30.7% and flatbed up 27.8% (excluding fuel surcharges).
Contract rates are anticipated to rise 7.6% for dry van and refrigerated, and 8.9% for flatbed in 2026, further rising into 2027 and potentially reaching near-record nominal levels by mid-next year. "This might be a situation where contract does move a little bit faster," Vise said. "We did not see it peaking out until around mid- to late next year."
Leading the market is flatbed, with FTR forecasting 2027 volume of 3.6%—the strongest outlook of any equipment type. Data center construction continues to be a significant contributor, though FTR is seeing an early-stage industrial recovery too.
However, Vise noted that even flatbed operators attribute the tightness to supply, not demand.
"In my discussions with flatbed operations, they still really point at this as more of a supply-side issue," he said. "From a recruiting standpoint, it is even harder to get a flatbed driver than it is a dry van or refrigerated driver … there's a physical capability issue that you have with flatbed that you do not have with dry van or refrigerated, and that keeps things even tighter."
[RELATED: Fuel, regulations and demand squeeze capacity]
The supply picture
Active truck utilization has climbed above its 10-year average of 92%, with FTR forecasting it to reach approximately 99% before the end of the year—a level last seen in 2018 and 2021. The active U.S. Class 8 population sits around 3.4 million to 3.5 million trucks, below the 2023 peak of roughly 3.63 million to 3.65 million.
General freight truckload payroll jobs are at their lowest since February 2014. Meanwhile, after peaking around 385,000 authorized for-hire carriers in 2022-2023, the number has fallen to roughly 345,000—which is 33.6% above pre-pandemic levels.
Vise attributed the slow hiring pace to carriers' caution: "Carriers don't have the robust recruiting programs in place that they had in 2021 and early 2022. They've also brought their budgets down for recruiting."
The regulatory squeeze
The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration's crackdown on non-domiciled CDLs and the enforcement of English language proficiency requirements is a significant capacity disruptor, though the eventual impact is unclear.
"We may very well have lost more than 50,000 foreign drivers because of their fear, or they may have changed the way they operate, or they may have moved from an over-the-road position to a local position," Vise said.
Other regulatory actions affecting supply include:
- Fraudulent and Chameleon Carriers being targeted by the FMCSA's new Motus anti-fraud registration system, though Vise said the agency is "still struggling a bit" with implementation.
- Unqualified CDL training programs removed from the federal registry.
- Enforcement against ineffective electronic logging devices that is expected to tighten hours-of-service compliance further.
Vise pointed out that the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling in Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II is also tightening standards for carrier selection.
