Federal regulatory enforcement continues to push carriers out of the market, creating a supply-demand imbalance and putting upward pressure on rates, according to a recent report.
In the first quarter, truckload spot rates jumped 16.5% year over year, the highest reading since 2022, as per RXO’s The Curve report, a proprietary truckload spot rate index. It’s also a significant boost from the 5.2% increase in Q4 2025. Meanwhile, truckload contract rates increased 2.4% year over year, flat from Q4.
RXO
“We’ve been in a year-over-year inflationary market for several quarters due to declining carrier capacity, but that hadn’t driven a substantial increase in rates until recently,” said Corey Klujsza, vice president of pricing and procurement at RXO.
“The first quarter saw a significant spike in truckload rates, and that trend has continued into the first half of the second quarter. During CVSA Roadcheck last week, which further constrained capacity, truckload rates outperformed seasonality and hit levels we haven’t seen since 2022,” said Klujsza.
Though spot rates improved, carriers were still under cost pressure, intensified by volatile fuel prices.
Inflation and consumer confidence cloud outlook
The broader economic environment remained in a similar spot as the last quarters. U.S. real gross domestic product grew 2.7% year over year, but a rise in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has distressed consumer confidence and pushed up energy prices.
The Consumer Price Index rose to 3.8% in April, with energy costs accounting for more than 40% of the increase.
On a positive note, the ISM Manufacturing PMI has entered expansionary territory every month in 2026, including April. The report highlighted it as a “potential bright spot” amid consumer prices and rising inflation, partially attributing it to the rising demand for data center construction.
When the freight cycle went inflationary in 2021 and 2022, the report noted that demand drove rate growth. “For this inflationary leg, the current macroeconomic outlook still doesn’t support a massive spike in demand—instead supply-side constraints (carrier attrition) are the driving force,” it said.
Truckload market trends to watch in Q2 2026
RXO
Spot rates have crossed above contract rates for the first time since 2022, and the gap has been widening throughout Q1 and into Q2.
This is also bolstered by enforcement-related capacity attrition and severe winter weather events earlier in the year.
Meanwhile, employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics note that carrier attrition continues. The number of employees in truck transportation decreased sequentially in 34 of the past 38 months. Among long-distance trucking drivers specifically, declines have persisted for nearly three years.
Freight volumes remain soft. The Cass Freight Index, which measures truckload shipping volumes, has been year-over-year negative for 14 consecutive quarters, though the rate of decline slowed to around -4.5% in March and April, down from -7% in January and February.
The Supreme Court’s tariff ruling and brokerage liability
Two legal developments are shaping the landscape.
In February, the Supreme Court struck down the administration’s tariffs based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The administration invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, imposing a 10% surcharge. The Court of International Trade ruled those tariffs unlawful in May. Section 122 tariffs are set to expire in late July.
The administration also indicated it is pursuing Section 301 tariffs, which have no expiration date but need lengthy investigations to implement.
Separately, on May 14, the Supreme Court issued a unanimous ruling in Montgomery v. Caribe Transport allowing freight brokers to be held liable for negligent hiring of carriers. The decision is likely to impact overall carrier capacity, the report noted, as smaller brokers may lack the compliance infrastructure and financial resources for increased insurance premiums.
Q2 2026 truckload outlook
RXO expects the Curve to continue rising through Q2, with the busiest shipping season of the year approaching, including produce season and summer industrial activity.
“We’re already in a fragile shipping environment, and any increase in demand will drive rates and volatility even higher,” the report stated.
