Fuel costs, counter-seasonal truckload tightening and regulatory changes are pushing capacity out of the market, according to a recent report.
Uber Freight’s Q2 Market Update Report showed that truckload markets went against seasonal patterns in April. Van spot rates jumped 24.8% year over year, excluding fuel; reefer was up 26.3% year over year; and flatbed increased 23.7% year over year.
First-tender acceptance declined from 83% to 82% in April, and shippers paid an average additional cost over the primary carrier rose 7.9%, well above the historical 1% to 2% range. Though spot rates increased across all three segments counter-seasonally, capacity conditions are likely to tighten through the June and July peak season.
C.H. Robinson’s June 2026 Edge Report echoed similar sentiments, adding that June would see increases in seasonal freight demand leading up to the July 4 holiday, driven by the overlap of produce and peak beverage shipping season.
“We continue to monitor manufacturing output trends and carrier supply, as both will likely be impactful to the market experience in the second half of 2026,” it said.
While capacity remains in the market, Nathan Adams, vice president of transportation procurement at Uber Freight, pointed out that carriers are becoming more selective and expensive to access, especially on high-demand lanes.
“The shippers performing best right now are planning earlier, working closely with carrier partners, validating carrier commitments and securing capacity before disruptions occur rather than reacting after the fact,” Adams said.
Capacity tightness remains a supply-side issue, Uber Freight noted in its report. It flagged the FMCSA’s non-domiciled CDL Final Rule, effective March 16, as projected to remove approximately 40,000 drivers annually over the next five years.
C.H. Robinson’s report also stated that driver availability continues to decline, with the most significant shortages among experienced CDL holders. At the same time, carriers are becoming more selective in their hiring processes, rejecting a greater percentage of applicants due to compliance and qualification standards.
Rising wages and incentive programs are also contributing to higher driver turnover, creating volatility to labor availability, according to the report.
Uber Freight forecasts spot rates to run 20% to 25% above 2025 and contract rates 5% to 10% higher through the rest of the year.
Mazen Danaf, principal economist at Uber Freight, said the forecast is driven by forces moving in the same direction: recovering manufacturing output, depleted inventories, weak tractor and trailer sales, and historically low levels of trucking employment.
“Taken together, those factors suggest the current environment is more than a temporary seasonal spike,” he said.
Uber Freight
In addition to tightening capacity conditions, the Middle East conflict continues to contribute to rising diesel prices, with U.S. diesel reaching $5.64 per gallon for the week of May 11. April alone was 11.2% above March, with Michigan and Illinois both above $6.
Uber Freight noted that fuel prices helped push spot rates from 40% to 45% year over year, as carriers become selective and reject lower-margin lanes to preserve profit.
Intermodal as a cost lever
Both reports pointed to intermodal as a mode-shift opportunity. C.H. Robinson reported that intermodal volumes continue to trend “above historical averages,” driven by cost pressures in the truckload market shifting freight to rail.
“Truckload rates are increasing at a faster pace than the measured movement of intermodal pricing. This widening spread is most evident across mid-length-of-haul lanes, particularly in the 550- to 1,500-mile range,” it said.
Uber Freight
Uber Freight’s report quantified the spread: $1.39/mi intermodal versus $2.85/mi equivalent truckload. FTR forecasts 2026 intermodal rates to be up 6.2%, excluding fuel surcharge. FTR also revised the 2026 volume forecast up to 2.6%, with domestic intermodal as the primary contributor at 4.2% year over year.
More customers are shifting to intermodal, including first-time users, according to Uber Freight. Shippers are capitalizing on the cost advantage and locking in 12-month rates, with high adoption rates, particularly in California and Texas.
