Article Summary
What’s going on in the contract market?
- Contract prices are lagging spot: Long-term contract rates are moving much slower than the volatile spot market. For the first time since February 2022, the national average van spot rate ($3.10) has completely overtaken the average contract rate ($2.89).
- All-in pricing slips due to fuel: Average all-in contract rates for van and refrigerated freight dipped in June—falling to $2.89 and $3.22 per mile, respectively—because falling fuel surcharges dragged down the total cost.
- Underlying linehaul rates are actually rising: Despite the drop in all-in pricing, base contract linehaul rates (which exclude fuel) rose across all sectors in June. Van linehaul rose 7 cents, refrigerated rose 4 cents, and flatbed jumped 15 cents, proving carriers are gradually gaining long-term pricing power.
- The spot-contract gap has narrowed/inverted: The historical premium that shippers pay for contract security has evaporated in major sectors. The refrigerated spot-to-contract deficit widened to 17 cents, while the flatbed contract premium narrowed to a slim 11-cent margin over spot.
Trucking contract rates lagged behind surging spot rates last month as tightening truck capacity—rather than an increase in freight demand—shifted pricing power back toward carriers.
National average contract rates showed mixed results in June. All-in contract pricing slipped for van and refrigerated freight as lower fuel surcharges offset gains in linehaul rates, while flatbed contract rates edged slightly higher, according to data from DAT Freight & Analytics.
The sluggish movement in contract pricing stood in contrast to the spot market, where rates climbed so rapidly in June that the national average van spot rate passed the contract rate for the first time since February 2022.
"The difference between spot and contract rates has narrowed steadily for more than a year, and carriers are gaining pricing power across the board," Dean Croke, a DAT industry analyst, said. "Van spot beating contract for the first time in four years, and flatbed hitting an all-time high in the same month, shows real capacity pressure. If demand were driving this, volumes would be climbing too, and they’re not."
According to DAT, the national average contract van rate fell 3 cents from May to $2.89 per mile, while the contract refrigerated rate dropped 6 cents to $3.22 per mile. Flatbed contract rates bucked the downward trend, climbing 3 cents to $3.80 per mile. Year over year, national average contract rates remained higher, up 49 cents for van freight, 48 cents for refrigerated, and 71 cents for flatbed.
While all-in contract totals were dragged down by fluctuating fuel surcharges, contract linehaul rates—the base price of moving freight minus fuel—rose across all major equipment types in June:
- Contract van linehaul: Up 7 cents to $2.26 per mile.
- Contract refrigerated linehaul: Up 4 cents to $2.53 per mile.
- Contract flatbed linehaul: Up 15 cents to $3.05 per mile.
The slow adjustments in the contract market allowed fast-moving spot rates to close the gap. The refrigerated spot-to-contract deficit widened to 17 cents in June, up from 7 cents in May. Flatbed remained the only sector where contract linehaul rates held above spot rates, though that spread narrowed to 11 cents, down from 52 cents a year ago.
Holiday week accelerates spot market surge
The upward momentum in the spot market intensified during the week ending July 3. Spot rates exceeded already-high expectations for the lead-up to July 4 holiday, breaking records across multiple equipment types, according to weekly analysis from Truckstop.com and FTR Transportation Intelligence.
Broker-posted dry van spot rates rose 3.8% last week to an all-time high of $3.10 per mile, topping the prior record set at the end of 2021 by slightly more than a penny. This peak pushes van spot rates even further ahead of June's $2.89 average contract rate.
Refrigerated spot rates saw their largest week-over-week jump on record for a late-June to early-July transition, surging 7.1% to $3.71 per mile. This marks the fourth-highest refrigerated spot rate ever recorded, far outstripping the $3.22 contract average from June.
Flatbed spot rates declined 0.3% last week to $3.82 per mile, marking a third straight weekly decline. However, flatbed spot prices remain just 3 cents below the all-time high reached in June and are up 51.3% compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, specialized spot rates fell 1.2% last week to $3.62 per mile, though they remain up 39.3% year over year.
Shifting market dynamics
Overall national spot market rates rose 0.2% last week to $3.65 per mile, representing a 49.8% increase compared to last year. This rate growth occurred despite a drop in fuel prices, as national average diesel fuel prices eased 15 cents to $4.70 per gallon.
A sharp, holiday-related drop in load postings caused the overall Truckstop.com and FTR Market Demand Index (MDI) to fall 46.4 points to 132.6, its lowest level since the third week of 2026. The decline was driven by a 26.9% decrease in load availability, which far exceeded a modest 1.3% decline in truck availability.
Despite the weekly holiday dip, the overall MDI remains up 87.1% year over year, reinforcing the long-term trend of a tightening market.
DAT previously attributed these broader dynamics to a shrinking pool of available trucks rather than a robust economic recovery, noting that regulatory changes and stricter immigration enforcement have continued to reduce the supply of qualified truck drivers.
