Despite larger-than-expected drops in retail truck sales and soft pricing in July, shrinking inventories and full OEM order boards point to stabilizing commercial vehicle values heading into 2027.
- Supply tightening across sectors: Used heavy-duty truck inventory declined 8.2% month-over-month (down 36% year-over-year), while used semi-trailer inventory fell 4.8% from June, marking 12 straight months of drops.
- Truck prices remain soft despite low supply: Class 8 used truck asking values fell 0.9% month-over-month, and average retail prices dropped 4.4% to $61,000—a larger pullback than typical seasonal trends.
- Trailer values show diverging strength: Unlike trucks, used semi-trailer asking values rose 0.5% month-over-month (up 4.3% year-over-year), with auction prices climbing 8.1% year-over-year led by refrigerated and dry van units.
- Outlook favors future price stabilization: Industry analysts project that shrinking retail supply combined with nearly full OEM order boards will help commercial vehicle values firm up through late 2026 and 2027.
Inventory levels for used heavy-duty trucks and semi-trailers in the U.S. plunged again in July, continuing a monthslong slide that is pushing supply closer to pandemic-era lows, according to new market reports from Sandhills Global.
Overall inventory for used heavy-duty trucks fell 8.2% from June and 36% compared to July of last year, marking eight consecutive months of decline. Used sleeper trucks drove the steepest inventory drop, falling 11.8% month-over-month and 40.3% year-over-year, according to Sandhills.
Despite shrinking supply, truck pricing remained soft. Asking values for heavy-duty trucks dipped nearly 0.9% month-over-month and 5.1% year-over-year. Day cab trucks saw the sharpest pricing pullbacks, with asking values dropping 1.4% from June and 7% from last year. Auction values dropped 1.1% month-over-month and 1.9% year-over-year, remaining relatively flat.
At retail, preliminary Class 8 same dealer used truck retail sales declined a larger than anticipated 2.9% month-over-month in July, according to ACT Research. ACT Research Vice President Steve Tam noted the drop was six times larger than expected.
“The decline was larger than expected based on historical seasonality, which called for about a 0.5% month-over-month decrease. Auction sales shed 11% month-over-month, noticeably less than the typical post-quarter end drop," he said, adding the wholesale segment settled between the other two channels, contracting 4.1% month-over-month.
“Total reported preliminary sales wrapped up July 5.7% lower month-over-month," Tam said. "Considering the spot freight market appears to have hit a ceiling in July, reduced used truck sales are not surprising.”
Tightening supply is a precursor to stabilizing prices across the commercial vehicle market.
"OEM order boards are nearly full and used inventory continues to leave the retail markets," said Sandhills Sales Manager Scott Lubischer. "All of these are very good signs for stronger retail values, and I expect the market will perform nicely for the remainder of the year and into 2027."
Retail sales per dealership rooftop showed signs of normalization in July, nearing long-term historical levels and average monthly depreciation remaining minimal, according to the latest market update published by J.D. Power.
The preliminary average retail price (same dealer sales) of used Class 8 trucks stutter stepped in July, flagging 4.4% month-over-month at $61,000, Tam said.
"Pricing softened more than seasonal expectations, which called for a little over a 1% reduction,” he added.
Retailed sleeper tractors averaged 63 months old, rising two months from June and nine months from July 2025, according to J.D. Power. Average mileage dropped 0.3% month-over-month and stood 11.1% below pre-2020 long-term trends.
According to data from Price Digests, a company owned by CCJ parent company Fusable, the average sales price in July for a late model tractor was basically unchanged from the month prior—just under $90,000. In fact, average price across all age groups held firm. Five year old sleepers jumped $610 to $50,820 and 10 year old models settled in at $26,360. Pricing among the 10 year old group has been remarkably stable this year, having fluctuated just $760 in the past 7 months.
Trailer market getting stronger
The used semi-trailer market experienced a similar supply squeeze, with overall inventory down 4.8% month-over-month and nearly 33.8% year-over-year. Trailer inventories have now dropped for 12 straight months, led by refrigerated trailers, which plummeted 18.3% from June and nearly 44.8% from a year ago.
Unlike trucks, trailer values are gaining momentum. Asking values for used semi-trailers rose 0.5% from June and 4.3% year-over-year. Flatbed trailers posted the largest monthly asking-price increase at 3%, while refrigerated trailers recorded the largest annual jump at 7.3%.
Auction values for trailers also surged, up 1.5% month-over-month and 8.1% year-over-year. Used dry van trailers led monthly auction gains with a 4.8% increase, while refrigerated trailers surged 18.1% year-over-year at auction.
