Nielsen ratings have measured the popularity of television shows since the 1950s. By pairing traditional viewer panels with massive data streams from millions of connected devices, Nielsen builds a picture of what people are watching. Networks and advertisers rely on these insights to see what's trending and determine the value of ad time.
Truck sales are a little more straightforward: a lot of sales means a particular model is popular.
According to the June 2026 edition of the biannual Zeroing in on ZETs report published by clean transportation industry group CALSTART, zero-emission truck (ZET) deployments surged in the second half of 2025. Driven by a late-year rally, clean-energy trucks accounted for 4.14% of all new commercial truck deployments nationwide from July through December—a nice rebound from the sluggish 1.32% market share seen in the first half of the year.
But under the headline-grabbing growth is the reality that the heavy-duty sector is flatlining while light commercial cargo vans run away with the market.
Of the 12,996 clean vehicles deployed in the final six months of 2025, 12,158 were commercial cargo vans. In Nielsen rating terms, this is the M*A*S*H finale.
Meanwhile, all non-cargo-van categories combined contributed 838 units. That's The Paul Reiser Show numbers.
So, what are electric cargo vans getting right that heavy-duty trucks are getting so profoundly wrong?
1. Kept charging simple
The most problematic hurdle for heavy-duty electric trucks is infrastructure. Attempting to power a Class 8 tractor requires large and complex DC fast-charging networks or multi-megawatt systems that are plagued by extensive development delays.
Cargo vans completely sidestep this headache.
"Cargo vans are pretty ideal," noted Jacob Richard, CALSTART Technical Project Manager. "You don’t need DC fast chargers for them. If you’re really optimizing that schedule, you can get away with Level 2 charging."
By relying on standard, easily deployed overnight depot charging, light-duty fleets can bypass years of utility upgrades, red tape, and expensive build-outs.
2. Mastered duty cycles vs. the unforgiving long-haul
Electric cargo vans excel because their physical routing perfectly aligns with battery technology. Operating in the last mile, they run predictable, local daily schedules before returning to a central depot.
On the flip side, heavy-duty over-the-road trucking demands relentless distance, heavy payloads, and rapid refueling—applications where battery-electric setups are still fighting physics, and where alternative options have utterly imploded.
Hydrogen fuel cell technology, once anointed heavy-duty's zero-emissions future champion, has effectively stalled out. Just one single hydrogen truck was deployed nationwide in the second half of last year, leaving a grand total of only 198 vehicles in active service across the country.
Compounding pressures have suffocated the heavy hydrogen segment:
- Zero OEM competition: Following Nikola’s spectacular, high-profile market exit—which left early adopting fleets holding the bag with unsupportable vehicles sitting idle on their lots—Hyundai is the only manufacturer left actively competing in the U.S. Class 8 hydrogen segment.
- Astronomical fuel costs: Even where sparse fueling stations exist, hydrogen pricing remains restrictively high compared to electric charging.
Because battery-electric vehicle (BEV) models continue to rapidly outpace hydrogen in production volume and forward pricing, hydrogen has been cornered into a "very slim market in the future," Richard noted. Nikola's very public faceplant plays a role in hydrogen's stumbling start, too.
3. Bulletproof economics
Perhaps the most telling victory for lighter clean vehicles is their blossoming financial independence. The commercial market has long been criticized for relying on government handouts, yet the late-2025 data tells a fascinating story of life after federal subsidies.
Despite the expiration of key federal tax credits at the end of September 2025, a sales surge still occurred. This is because the underlying Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) ledger has matured, Richard said. Manufacturers are now throwing around seven and eight-year battery warranties, giving fleets the confidence to extend asset lifecycles and bank on the promise of long-term fuel savings.
While state-level vouchers reaching up to $120,000 continue to artificially cushion entry barriers in standard-bearing states like California, New York, and New Jersey, momentum is bubbling organically in southern freight hubs like Georgia and Texas.
The delta between regional diesel prices and local utility electricity rates is narrowing, and short shipping loops connecting major metropolitan nodes enable electric assets to make financial sense on a pure per-mile basis, entirely independent of federal subsidies.
The heavy-duty exceptions
If there is a silver lining for heavy-duty applications, it is found in the few vocational niches that mimic cargo vans' operational blueprint: working all day and never really going anywhere.
In the second half of last year, there was a surge in zero-emission refuse truck deployments, which spiked to 3.92% of all new segment deployments—dramatically eclipsing its previous historical peak of 1.52%.
"I personally believe refuse is one of the most ideal applications due to the start-and-go nature, and you’re able to recoup so much from regenerative braking," Richard said. Stop-and-go urban routing allows heavy refuse trucks to aggressively claw back power every 40 feet, maximizing energy efficiency.
This mirrors the steady, predictable ascension of clean yard tractors, which are now tracking toward nearly 10% of all new deployments due to their localized, confined duty cycles.
In TV terms, the battery-electric and heavy-duty trucking relationship is more Sam and Diane, where the characteristics of one simply don't mesh with the other and the pair can barely co-exist no matter how much they (or the general public) want them to.
Cargo vans are, right now, Rob and Laura Petrie: a pairing that just makes sense on every conceivable level.
