The Commercial Motor Vehicle Consulting CV Parts Aftermarket Leading Indicator increased 0.03 percent in January to 104.70 following a 0.01 percent decrease in December 2011 and a 0.61 percent increase in November 2011. According to CMVC, PLI is signaling the growth rate of commercial vehicle parts aftermarket sales will decelerate in the near term. CMVC says commercial vehicle parts aftermarket sales will continue to expand, but the rate of growth is decelerating in comparison to growth rates in 2011.
CMVC says the component series that make up the composite index, PLI, continue to improve, signaling higher commercial vehicle parts aftermarket sales, but the rates at which these component series are improving are moderating. The commercial vehicle population continues to operate at high utilization rates, which CMVC says implies truck depreciation will continue to stimulate parts consumption.
The commercial vehicle PLI index was designed to be a short-term forecasting indicator of U.S. commercial vehicle parts aftermarket sales and to signal peaks and troughs and inflection/turning points in parts sales due to changes in fleets’ business environments as a result of cyclical change in the business cycle, such has expansion, recession and recovery.
PLI does not measure changes in trend factors, such as vehicle demographics, that have a medium- and/or long-term influence on parts aftermarket sales, since changes in trend factor variables lag the fluctuation and turning points in parts sales related to changes in the business cycle when cyclical factors overwhelm trend factors.