More of the same from the economy, with a real chance for rate traction just over the next hill: that’s the message delivered – yet again – by a panel of experts during this year’s crystal ball session at the American Trucking Associations’ Management Conference and Exhibition. Until the delicately balanced supply-and-demand scale tilts trucking’s way, the bottom line for carriers is to continue to guard the bottom line.
The lackluster forecast was nothing to email home about, but the trucking industry executives attending the Sunday luncheon discussion took away more positives than negatives.
The panel, “All Eyes on the Economy,” was hosted by Stuart Varney of the Fox News Channel and featured ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello, Kenneth Vieth III of ACT Research and Mark Vitner, senior economist for Wells Fargo.
The outlook, at it has for the past two or three years, hinges on whether GDP growth will edge closer to 3 percent or continue to linger around 2 percent.
Leaner carriers have managed to make do with current fleet sizes, and trucking has been able to maintain the market equilibrium – so any uptick in the economy will move the needle significantly in the industry’s favor, Costello explained.
“At the moment, fleets are expanding slowly,” Costello said, “which means that once we see more consistent, accelerated economic growth, it will eventually cause very tight capacity.”
The question, however, is just what might drive that growth, and when?
