ATA forecasts growth after two years of decline

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Updated Jan 22, 2025

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After two years of decline, truck volumes are expected to grow 1.6% in 2025 and rise to nearly 14 billion tons by 2035, according to the American Trucking Association. The data comes from the ATA Freight Transportation Forecast 2024 to 2035, created with S&P Global Market Intelligence.

“In this edition of forecast, the trucking industry continues to dominate the freight transportation industry in terms of both tonnage and revenue, comprising 72.7% of tonnage and 76.9% of revenue in 2024,” said ATA chief economist Bob Costello. “We project that marketshare to hold over the next decade as the country continues to rely on trucking to move the vast majority of freight.”

The report’s findings indicated that total truck tonnage is expected to increase from an estimated 11.27 billion tons in 2024 to 13.99 billion tons in 2035. Over that same period, trucking industry revenues are projected to grow from around $906 billion to $1.46 trillion, accounting for 76.8% of the freight market by the end of the forecast period.

Recovery marked by volatility

The ATA’s tonnage tracker, ATA Truck Tonnage Index, showed slow and inconsistent shifts throughout 2024.

According to ATA’s data, last January started off at a low point (decreased 3.5% compared to the previous month), followed by a 4.3% increase in February, marking the highest level in the year. Subsequent months showed a mix of gains and losses. March and April saw declines of 2% and 1.2%, respectively, indicating that freight conditions remained weak.

By mid-year, the index had stabilized, with slight drops in June (decreased 1.6%) and July (decreased 0.3%), offset by a notable 1.8% increase in August. September’s 2.1% drop was followed by modest growth in October, wherein tonnage increased by 1.2%.

Despite positive momentum, November saw another dip of almost 1% year-over-year, highlighting the industry’s volatility. December marked the second consecutive month of contraction, with tonnage falling 1.8% from the previous month and pushing the tonnage to its lowest level since January 2024.

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“Sluggishness in factory output continues to weigh on freight volumes, but another drag on the index has been fleet growth at private carriers, which is holding back how much freight is flowing to for-hire carriers,” Costello said.

Other projections

Similar to ATA’s forecast of 1.6%, ACT Research projects freight demand to grow to a modest 1.8% year over year.

Old Dominion Freight Line echoed optimism. In a January 6 blog, CEO Marty Freeman indicated improving economic conditions, stating, “We believe 2025 will be defined not just by growth but by prosperity. The foundation for success has been laid. We’re here to move forward together.”

Truckstop’s latest Carrier Insight Survey also revealed a hopeful and forward-thinking outlook within the industry. Ninety-four percent of carriers feel their professional life will improve in 2025, with 53% expecting it to be “significantly better.” Only 3% of carriers plan to leave the trucking industry in 2025.   

[Related: Freight environment signals hope, but policy shifts bring risks]

FTR analysts in its 2025 Transportation Outlook webinar also noted cautious optimism in 2025 volumes, predicting around a 1% growth. “Based on the path we’re seeing, we’re expecting the overall truck freight volume up around a percentage point year-over-year,” said Avery Vise, VP of trucking at FTR.

“Trucking demand in 2025 will be strongly determined based on government policies and legislation (mass deportations, tariffs, deregulation, and business tax cuts),” wrote Jason Miller, associate professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University and interim chair of the Department of Supply Chain Management.

Pamella De Leon is a senior editor of Commercial Carrier Journal. An avid reader and travel enthusiast, she likes hiking, running, and is always on the look out for a good cup of chai. Reach her at [email protected]