A report from Indeed Hiring Lab that examined trends in the U.S. transportation market in Q2 2025 reported that job postings across all transportation categories declined year over year.
According to the report, driving jobs on Indeed dropped 5.8%, loading and stocking jobs waned at 13.6%, and logistics support jobs declined 8.2% compared to the previous year.
Daniel Culberston, senior economist at Indeed Hiring Lab, said the data suggests that transportation hiring is in line with the overall labor market.
“Driver job postings are well off their post-pandemic highs and, while volatile, essentially flat in 2025,” he said. “Job posting trends are a measure of employer demand for workers and, in turn, a measure of the competition employers face in hiring. All labor markets are of course local, and conditions will vary from region to region, but overall, competition for driver postings is relatively low.”
Culberston pointed to several factors that are likely contributing to this slowdown. First off, economic uncertainty is likely weighing on the transportation sector as slower growth and softer consumer spending. Secondly, trade policy uncertainty has likely caused some companies to delay long-term hiring and investment decisions as they wait out for more clear tariff policies and the resulting conditions.
Both factors potentially mean less goods to move and therefore, less activity in the transportation sector, Culbertson said.
Transportation wage growthIndeed
Wage growth tells a mixed story, with both driving and loading and stocking roles remaining below the labor market average of 2.9%. Loading and stocking wages slipped along with job postings to 1.8% year-over-year growth (down from last year’s 3.9%), while driving wages held steady at 1%, matching the pace at June 2024.
Flexible pay models are also becoming key drivers of competitiveness. The National Transportation Institute’s survey data showed a 1.4% year-over-year growth in per-mile pay.
Fleet Intel’s Mid-Year Driver Pay Trend Tracker report noted that wage growth is returning in specialized freight sectors, with segments such as flatbed and tanker seeing faster wage gains than general freight.
It projects pay increases over the next 12 months for both tanker and flatbed segments to reflect market demand and labor scarcity.
While it’s encouraging to see wage growth rise over the past few months, Culberston noted that Indeed Hiring Lab’s estimate of a 1% year-over-year growth is rather weak considering the 2.9% labor market average.
“Declining job postings for driving roles, and the aforementioned causes, are weighing on wage growth,” he said.
Slowdown in driver wage growth
Data from the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) shows a similar slowdown in driver wage growth, according to its July report. After climbing 10.8% in 2021 and 15.5% in 2022, gains moderated to 7.6% in 2023 and just 2.4% in 2024.
“The rate of driver wage growth is on track to decelerate further during 2025,” the report noted.
For comparison, average wages across all U.S. occupations rose 3.7% in 2024, below the 2023 average of 5.8%, according to ATRI. Unemployment edged higher as well, holding between 4% and 4.2% since May 2024, though still low by long-term standards.
“The slowing rate of national wage growth and uptick in unemployment means that there will be less upward pressure on driver wages from other industries competing for labor market,” the report said.
ATRI said demand for drivers is another piece slowing growth in driver wages in 2025. BLS data shows the number of production and nonsupervisory employees in long-distance trucking slid from 685,100 in December 2023 to 672,500 a year later, before leveling off in early 2025. Despite that drop, wages continued to move upward at a steady pace, according to ATRI.
“Though driver wage costs are thus unlikely to increase significantly in 2025 under current conditions, they are also unlikely to recede,” the report noted.
The wildcard
A key uncertainty that ATRI pointed out is the impact of tariffs.
“If truck driver remains steady at its present level, driver compensation costs could be exposed to any uptick in inflationary pressure resulting from tariffs,” it said.
ATRI also noted that driver wages, fuel, repair and maintenance expenses and truck and trailer payments are all eroding margins. Carrier profitability weakened across the board, with average operating margins under 2% in every sector except LTL, with truckload averaging -2.3% in 2024.
