Despite persistent cross-border operational challenges and emerging capacity constraints heading into 2026, nearshoring investments and manufacturing sector shifts are fundamentally reshaping North American supply chains.
Uber Freight’s latest market outlook reports that Mexico attracted $34.3 billion in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)—a 10.2% increase year-over-year—with the U.S. remaining its primary investment partner. Mexico’s export market saw a growth of 2–4 percentage points in several key sectors, including beverages, industrial machinery, vehicles, auto parts, furniture, and medical instruments.
However, the automotive manufacturing sector faced significant headwinds. Vehicle production in Mexico fell 3.7% year-over-year in October, driven by semiconductor shortages and uncertainty surrounding the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Furthermore, despite 50% U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper, Mexico maintained export levels, albeit with higher production costs and lower volumes.
“Local manufacturers are strengthening regional supply chains by substituting components and boosting national integration,” the report noted. It highlighted that Mazda, Honda, and General Motors have increased local sourcing and diversified their supplier bases to mitigate production risks.
Blockades disruptions, driver supply
C.H. Robinson’s latest freight market update highlighted that road blockades across 17 Mexican states in late November and early December—led by the National Union of Agricultural Workers—severely impacted cross-border operations. Following failed negotiations with authorities, over 8,000 truckloads were disrupted in the BajĂo region, triggering major congestion, delayed deliveries, and production halts.
Driver availability remains a critical concern. New U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) requirements are set to disqualify certain drivers based on English proficiency and will involve stricter reviews of foreign CDLs for irregularities, such as cabotage violations. Additionally, the U.S. has paused visa reviews for H-2B, E-2, and EB-3 applicants, further straining the pool of international drivers.
Canada market
C.H. Robinson also emphasized government crackdowns on driver misclassification in Canada. Authorities have intensified enforcement against “Driver Inc.” loopholes, where carriers inappropriately classify employees as independent contractors to avoid providing benefits such as minimum wage, paid leave, and safety protections.
“Carriers may temporarily reduce load commitments to avoid risk, which may slow freight movement, tighten available capacity, and lead to higher rates,” C.H. Robinson stated.
On the economic front, S&P Global’s Canada Manufacturing PMI for October indicated continued contraction, though at the slowest rate in nine months. Both production and exports declined at their weakest rates in nearly a year. “Manufacturing sentiment is at its highest level since January,” Uber Freight noted, “reflecting a more positive outlook heading into 2026.”
However, Canadian carriers face a "perfect storm" of challenges:
- The international student-to-driver pipeline has dried up.
- High interest rates are constraining new asset acquisitions.
- The "Driver Inc." crackdown has significantly increased operational compliance costs.
“These pressures have manifested as higher replacement rates for 2026 contracts, while carriers remain active in the spot market to pursue margin opportunities,” Uber Freight reported.
USMCA review
Both reports emphasized the July 1, 2026, USMCA review as a critical juncture that could reshape cross-border freight dynamics. Mexico’s auto sector has expressed concern over potentially stricter rules-of-origin requirements and increased scrutiny of Asian-sourced components, while heavy-vehicle manufacturers worry about meeting more stringent regional content mandates.
