Preliminary data for September from FTR Transportation Intelligence and ACT Research shows waning demand for trailers.
U.S. trailer net orders rose by 75% month-over-month from a low base to 11,532 units, according to FTR. However, the figure represented a 63% year-over-year declines and marked the lowest September net order total since 2016. Dven with the opening of 2025 order boards, net orders fell significantly below industry expectations, raising concerns for the upcoming order season.
ACT Research
ACT Research reported trailer orders increased by around 4,400 units from August to September, reaching 12,100 units, but were down 61% compared to a year ago.
As September marks the traditional start of the order season, the month-over-month increase was expected, said Jennifer McNealy, director of commercial vehicle market research and publications at ACT. The sharp decline compared to September 2023 is also not a surprise, given the weak demand seen throughout the year.
McNealy noted that September’s numbers bring total U.S. trailer net orders for 2024 to 101,600 units, a 34% drop compared to the first nine months of 2023, with Q3 2024 net orders down 51% from the same quarter last year, totaling just 27,000 units.
Even with month-over-month improvement in orders, McNealy said September’s data aligns with ACT’s expectations of weaker demand.
FTR pointed out that the weak truck freight market in 2024 is expected to continue to dampen trailer demand. Year-to-date, total trailer net orders fell 31% year-over-year to 92,642 units, averaging only 10,294 units per month. In September, total trailer build decreased by 11% month-over-month and 40% year-over-year to just 15,617 units, the lowest monthly output since July 2016.
While trailer orders were weak in September, Class 8 orders slightly exceeded expectations at nearly 33,000 units for North America, said Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles at FTR. “This divergence suggests that some fleets are prioritizing spending on new power units over trailers, possibly due to reduced profitability or shifting trade cycles.”
McNealy said the pause is likely to continue throughout 2024, with some in the industry expressing concern about what 2025 will bring.
“The timing and size of 2025 order bookings is the wildcard,” McNealy said. Other signs pointing to a lack of optimism include persistently high cancellations and backlogs at their lowest levels in a decade. Although the economy shows positive signs, weak carrier profitability is likely to limit trailer orders and prevent a strong build-up of 2025 backlogs into the end of the year.
FTR noted that in September, total net trailer orders once again fell below production levels, leading to a backlog reduction of 4,255 units, leaving just more than 82,750 units in the backlog. The larger month-over-month decline in production compared to backlogs pushed the backlog-to-build ratio to 5.3 months. While this is an increase, it is still around 0.6 months below the historical pre-2020 average, indicating that manufacturers may have reason to further slow production.
High trailer inventories at dealerships, lower fleet spending on trailers, and shrinking backlogs will likely continue to pressure trailer production rates through the rest of 2024, Moyer said. "If trailer orders for 2025 don’t pick up soon, some OEMs may extend or expand production cuts in next year," Moyer added.
