Trailer net orders in November increased 42% month-over-month and 6% year-over-year to 22,745 units, according to FTR Transportation Intelligence – the highest net order total since last December and a positive note given several months of weak orders.
ACT Research
The uptick was expected, as it’s still the early stages of the traditional start of the order season, said Jennifer McNealy, director of commercial vehicle market research and publications at ACT Research. However, McNealy cautioned it may not mark a trend, as data shows that the order activity is typical for year-end, so it’s still unclear whether November’s pattern will hold.
“Despite the order improvement, ACT’s expectations for weak trailer demand relative to recent performance remain, as continuing weak for-hire truck market fundamentals, low used equipment valuations, relatively full dealer inventories, and high interest rates impede stronger activity, especially into early 2025," she said.
Whether the uptick signals sustained demand will depend not only on the early months of the new order cycle, but also on order volumes through the first quarter of 2025, McNealy added.
FTR's data showed that total trailer net orders for the 2025 order season (September-November 2024) are down 42% year-over-year to 50,651 units, an average of only 16,884 units per month. Total trailer build declined 20% month-over-month in November to 13,238 units, down slightly more than the typical seasonal month-over-month drop, and was down 43% year-over-year. The output is 41% below the five-year average for November and marks the lowest monthly production level since 2010.
In November, total net orders were significantly above production levels, increasing backlogs by 10,124 units to 92,213 units. Reduced production and rising backlogs drove the backlog-to-build ratio up to 7 months, the highest level since February 2024. This suggested a slight easing of pressure on OEMs to reduce production in the short term.
FTR observed that there’s a continued disconnect between demand for trailers and demand for trucks. North American Class 8 orders increased 2% year-over-year in September-November 2024, while U.S. trailer net orders declined by 42% year-over-year in the same period. Throughout 2024, for-hire fleets have focused on investing in new power units rather than trailers, likely due to weakened profitability or changes in trade cycles. While OEMs have cut down on production, further reductions may be needed if trailer orders in 2025 fall short of expectations.
In the context of Class 8 truck orders, President-elect Trump’s plan to impose immediate tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China will add another layer of challenge, said Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, at FTR.
“Those tariffs would significantly raise costs for fully assembled trailers imported from Mexico and Canada as well as for critical automotive parts sourced from these regions and China that are essential to U.S.-based trailer production,” said Moyer.
The resulting supply chain disruptions and cost increases could lead to higher trailer prices, shifts in trade cycles and buyer behavior, and tighter fleet budgets. Moyer added, “Slightly elevated trailer dealer inventories might temporarily meet a short-term demand surge as buyers attempt to avoid higher costs, but the potential for increased costs for Class 8 tractors might prompt some fleets to continue prioritizing purchasing power units over trailers in the near term.”
