As the market continues to be in cautious equilibrium, shipper priority in 2026 is focused on execution, compliance and supply chain resilience.
Volume projections remain intact, but shippers are cautious to assume growth without clearer signals, according to the 2026 State of the North American Supply Chain report released by Averitt (CCJ Top 250, No. 25).
Instead of causing disruptions, tariffs have become a daily operational burden, shaping costs, compliance and planning. The report found 50.6% of shippers reported negative tariff impact in 2025, though uncertainty declined as shippers planned for continuity.
WWEX Group’s 2026 State of Shipping and Logistics Report also noted a legal dimension to policy in 2026. Supreme Court scrutiny of the administration’s tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) means shippers face a critical decision point. If upheld, elevated duties become a long-term fixture; if struck down, some importers may recover significant refunds, while competitors that did not sue may miss out.
Averitt said the operational cascade effect of this involves delays at ports or borders that can impact downstream disruption, including tying up inventory, increasing dwell times, and cost pressure once freight enters domestic networks.
“Some product lines had multiple countries of origin, and there was so much confusion that some businesses halted shipping while others had no choice but to continue business as usual,” said John Pavlick, WWEX Group vice president of truckload.
The answer may not be waiting for tariff clarity but rather to build compliance capability into core operations.
Averitt said customs brokerage could be a frontline control point rather than a back-office function, while WWEX said shippers should “audit 2025 imports for tariff exposure and consult trade counsel” now, before the Supreme Court rules.
Capacity: tight and fragile
Carrier exits and increased compliance enforcement have reduced supply, Averitt pointed out in its report.
“These are not cyclical shifts that will self-correct with demand; they represent a leaner operating baseline,” it said.
Potential trucking regulation could also significantly tighten capacity, WWEX noted. A federal appeals court issued an administrative stay in November last year halting the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA)’s emergency rule on non-U.S. domiciled CDLs. On February 18, 2026, FMCSA issued a final rule, effective March 16, 2025, to restrict non-domiciled CDLs to foreign nationals holding H-2A, H-2B, or E-2 visas.
“If those drivers come off the road, it will take a major chunk out of truckload capacity — right as carrier bankruptcies are already rising, and fraud is knocking carriers out of the market. Even if demand stays muted, fewer drivers will tighten supply fast, and if demand turns even slightly, routing guides and rates could shift aggressively almost overnight,” said Brian Andalman, WWEX Group vice president of carrier procurement.
Another crucial legislative layer is the Dalilah Law introduced by Indiana Senator Jim Banks in the Senate, following President Donald Trump’s call at his State of the Union address to create measures to bar states from granting CDLs to illegal immigrants.
The bill takes the FMCSA’s emergency rule significantly further by making compliance a condition of receiving federal Department of Transportation funding and requiring states to revoke all CDLs currently held by undocumented immigrants and individuals with temporary status within 180 days of enactment. It would also mandate all CDL knowledge and skill tests be administered in English.
Averitt pointed to dedicated fleets to help reduce exposure to spot-market volatility.
Mexico and cross-border complexity
Both reports pointed out nearshoring, cross-border compliance, and Mexico’s growing influence as a logistics hub as critical priorities in the year ahead.
In 2023, WWEX pointed out that Mexico overtook China as the leading source of U.S. imports for the first time in two decades, and in 2025, it claimed the top spot for U.S. exports in three of the first five months of the year.
Less expensive labor, lower real estate costs and long-standing trade flow between the U.S. and Mexico makes it an attractive hub for European and Chinese companies to expand manufacturing footprint, said JJ Lewis, WWEX Group senior vice president of truckload.
Averitt reported similar sentiments, adding that enforcement around driving qualifications and operating authority has increased. Shippers are now prioritizing partners that “do not use B-1 drivers, do not rely on noncompliant capacity, and maintain clear accountability on both sides of the border.”
Capturing the market’s benefits would require investing in compliance infrastructure and cross-border expertise, the report said.
