Class 8 truck orders continued their year-over-year gains in March.
North American Class 8 truck preliminary net orders for March totaled 38,200 units, down 19% from February, but surging 137% compared to the same month a year ago, according to FTR. This marks the fourth consecutive month of greater than 20% year-over-year growth.
February saw the strongest order volume since 1996, driven by the urgent need to replace aging fleets (now averaging 6.5 years old) rather than an increase in freight demand.
ACT Research’s figures were broadly in line, putting March preliminary orders at 37,200 units, up 126% year over year.
The monthly dip was expected as FTR pointed to typical volatility and normal seasonal patterns. Orders still exceeded expectations, now totaling more than 280,000 units over the past 12 months and up 69% year-over-year cumulatively since the demand inflection in December, and up 96% year-to-date in 2026.
The 2026 order season from September 2025 through March 2026 is up 15% year over year, which Dan Moyer, FTR senior analyst of commercial vehicles, said represents a “clear inflection” from the double-digit declines from the earlier cycle.
Moyer described the shift as “reinforcing the view that the industry has entered the early stages of recovery.”
“While monthly variability is likely to persist, improving cumulative order trends and a strengthening freight backdrop suggest demand is becoming more durable and less reliant on short-term catch-up dynamics,” Moyer said.
He added, “At the same time, disciplined OEM production continues to support backlog growth without leading to excess inventory.”
As the traditional order season winds down and backlog building from December continues, ACT research analyst Carter Vieth noted that order activity will likely ease from current levels in the months ahead.
“The Iran war poses major risks to the economic outlook, but tight for-hire capacity and a return of the driver shortage have helped insulate spot rates from the negative impacts of rising diesel prices,” said Vieth.
[RELATED: Current run on diesel prices affects fleets differently than 2022 spike]
FTR reported that a portion of order activity likely reflects deferred replacement demand reentering the market. But the durability of that trend suggests better freight fundamentals. The firm said, “That momentum is being driven by improving freight volumes, higher asset utilization, and firmer rate expectations.”
Tightening capacity is reinforcing those rate gains, FTR noted, and fleets are gaining confidence. Clarity on tariff adjustment pricing and visibility into EPA 2027 NOx compliance costs have also helped, it said.
Still, Moyer pointed out several risks that could complicate the outlook, including the trajectory of freight recovery, elevated financing costs, policy uncertainty, and geopolitical factors affecting fuel prices.
There’s also the possibility that the surge in orders could become a risk factor, he said. For example, a potential FOMO effect, where fleets scramble to secure build slots, may inflate backlogs and raise the risk of higher cancellation rates if the freight recovery stumbles.
On the flip side, if the order strength reflects underlying demand, Moyer said the industry may face constraints ramping production, especially given potential supply chain and labor issues.
On the medium-duty side, Vieth reported that preliminary Classes 5-7 orders rose 4.5% year-over-year to 19,300 units in March.
“Like last month’s orders, the positive year-over-year differential lends itself more to easy comps than a meaningful demand inflection,” said Vieth. “Concerns over the K-shaped economy will impact medium duty more than heavy duty, as less wealthy households cut back on the services supported by MD trucks.”
