Regulatory enforcement efforts against noncompliant carriers and evolving global sourcing strategies are continuing to reshape supply chain infrastructure.
According to ITS Logistics’ December forecast in its U.S. Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index, these impacts will continue to intensify in 2026.
“We continue to see a decline in import and export volumes through Q4, attributed to tariff-related frontloading and changes in sourcing strategy," said Paul Brashier, vice president of global supply chain for ITS Logistics.
While demand-side pressures remain limited, Brashier said that “significant supply-side regulatory enforcement and trucking capacity reductions are affecting inland transportation.”
Spot market indicates stress signals
Recent spot market data reveals how short-term disruptions can strain an already fragile capacity environment. DAT One’s data during the week of December 7-13 reported that spot rates jumped across all equipment types as winter weather and holiday freight pushed demand for trucks.
Load posts on DAT One totaled 3 million, 10% lower than the previous week but still the second-highest weekly total this year. The number of truck posts rose 3% to 256,617 on greater dry van availability. The mix of winter storms across much of the country and the repositioning of groceries and retail goods for the holidays increased demand for trucks and pushed rates higher, DAT reported.
The national average dry van linehaul rate climbed to $1.89 per mile, up 8 cents week over week, while van loads fell 9% to 1.5 million and van equipment rose 5% to 180,967. Reefer rates increased 3 cents to $2.21 per mile despite reefer loads dropping 16% to 686,774. Flatbed rates gained 2 cents to $2.07 per mile as loads decreased 7% to 772,879.
Dean Croke, industry analyst at DAT Freight & Analytics, noted that dry van spot rates climbed as winter storms made travel difficult and pushed freight to brokers and the DAT One load board.
Spot rates for Week 50 were also the highest outside of the pandemic years (2020-2021) across all three major equipment types. Croke said this highlighted how “quickly short-term shocks can strain capacity.”
DAT Ratecast predicts the national average weekly van spot rate will increase by another 20 cents per mile by New Year’s Day, representing a 25% rise in spot rates from early November through year-end, assuming no extreme weather and a typical late-December capacity crunch as carriers pause for the holidays.
“The question is whether recent rate increases indicate a lasting shift or a temporary ‘sugar rush’ caused by weather and the calendar,” Croke cautioned. “For now, the signs point to the latter. Carrier exits, bankruptcies and stricter roadside enforcement are shrinking capacity at the edges but not enough yet to create sustained, demand-driven pricing power for carriers.”
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Regulatory crackdown amplifies
ITS noted that the enforcement landscape has grown significantly across multiple fronts, some of which, including the U.S. Transportation Department withholding infrastructure funding and decertifying CDL programs from states, were deemed noncompliant with federal licensing regulations.
States are conducting roadside enforcement operations and even phasing out non-domiciled CDL programs. These actions, along with rising carrier insolvencies, are “culling the 2026 capacity pool of both inland and drayage providers, which will likely result in swift capacity crunches as demand returns,” the report said.
Josh Allen, chief commercial officer at ITS Logistics, said capacity impacts are already materializing.
“We’re already seeing the impact today, particularly in the spot market,” Allen said. “Traditional indices and real-time metrics are showing early signs of capacity contraction, but it’s uneven, appearing in pockets rather than system-wide.”
He said the pressure will likely persist through year-end as drivers take extended holiday breaks and some may even exit the industry entirely.
Looking toward early 2026, Allen said that even as capacity continues to exit the market, the critical variable is meaningful demand rebound.
“The immediate impact on rates will be muted once the post-holiday e-commerce wraparound fades in mid-January,” he said.
Spot rates have broken away from contract pricing, Allen explained, but remain tied to typical Q4 seasonal patterns such as peak season and holiday shipping. As Q1 progresses, he added that there may be some weakness when seasonal demand tapers off.
“That said, the market is clearly preparing for a rebound," he said. "The capacity influences at play today are structural, not cyclical."
When demand picks up, even slightly, it will “begin a new chapter in the freight economy," he added.
