Class 8 truck orders pulled back in April, but the year-over-year comparison remained ahead.
ACT Research’s preliminary April figure came in at 24,800 units, up 201% year over year. FTR’s estimate was higher, reporting preliminary net orders of 25,500 units, a 34% decline from March. Despite the month-over-month softness, orders surged 199% from April 2025. FTR noted that April marked the third consecutive month of triple-digit year-over-year gains, exceeding 140% as orders over the last 12 months reached 298,105 units.
“With April signifying the beginning of weak order seasonality until 2027 order boards open in September, it’s little surprise that preliminary April Class 8 order activity fell from March levels,” said Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research.
The sequential drop reflects normal seasonality, FTR said, as March's elevated activity set a high bar rather than a loss of momentum. Year-to-date 2026 orders are running 110% year over year, pushing the cumulative order season growth up to 23%.
Demand is supported by multiple tailwinds, FTR reported: firmer freight rates, tighter capacity, higher utilization, replacement needs, possibly some limited fleet growth among healthier carriers, and fleets locking in remaining 2026 build slots ahead of anticipated cost increases tied to EPA 2027 NOx emissions standards.
“However, weak retail truck sales and varied carrier profitability suggest that the recovery is still uneven,” FTR said.
Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, at FTR, pointed out two major concerns.
The first is fear-of-missing-out (FOMO)-driven ordering, wherein fleets are ordering earlier or in larger volume than needed to avoid being shut out of 2026 production, which could elevate cancellation risks.
“We still believe that risk is limited unless freight recovery stalls,” Moyer said.
The second and more pressing risk is production execution.
“Demand is very strong, but OEMs and suppliers must now ramp production from a low Q1 base without creating labor, supply chain, quality or inventory issues,” Moyer explained.
Other cited risks include regulatory uncertainty, the durability of the freight recovery, high financing costs and geopolitical factors that could sustain pressure on fuel prices.
“Overall, April orders reinforce the main message: Class 8 demand remains strong, but the focus is shifting from demand recovery to backlog quality and production execution,” Moyer said.
Order boards for 2026 are likely to fill faster than normal, until remaining build slots are sold out in the coming months, FTR reported.
Public comments from OEMs have indicated that availability is tightening, FTR said, with some manufacturers noting that Q2 slots and the second half of 2026 already committed.
In a call with analysts discussing Q1 financial earnings results, PACCAR CEO Preston Feight said, “As for build slots, we are full in Q2 and a majority full in Q3 and Q4.”
On the medium-duty side, ACT reported preliminary Classes 5-7 net orders of 16,400 units in April, up 26% year over year. Vieth attributed the gain to last year’s “Liberation Day” disruptions.
“Concerns about the K-shaped economy will impact medium duty more than heavy duty, as less wealthy households cut back on the services supported by MD trucks,” Vieth added.
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