U.S. trailer demand in March defied expectations, driven largely by replacement orders rather than fleet expansion, according to FTR and ACT Research.
Net orders climbed 36% to 18,045 units from February but remained 15% below a year ago. The gain defied the typical 20% month-over-month decline in March, though net orders were still below the 10-year March average of 20,276 units. Orders covering the 2026 trailer order season (September 2025-March 2026) are tracking 19% behind last year, and orders are down 15% for the year to date.
ACT Research’s preliminary figures indicated similar trends, estimating net trailer orders at 18,800 units—up roughly 5,600 units, a 42%-month increase from February’s 13,300-unit level, but still 14% below March 2025.
A sequential pullback in orders is the norm as March is typically the weakest month of the annual order cycle, observed Jennifer McNealy, ACT’s director of CV market research and publications.
However, the order cycle has been delayed a few months, McNealy noted. Orders that typically begins in September or October didn’t materialize until December. “We have entered the period of the year in which trailer makers typically receive fewer orders and start to work down that backlog that grew during peak season,” she said.
On the production side, FTR reported that March builds rose 15% month over month to 17,501 units, coming in just 1% below the prior-year level. Year-to-date builds are also down 1%, which FTR said reflected continued production discipline from manufacturers.
“Despite the healthy increase in orders, trailer demand remains largely replacement driven as fleets still have excess trailer capacity,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, at FTR.
In contrast, Class 8 demand is seeing a more pronounced recovery, Moyer noted, supported by improving asset utilization, firmer freight rate expectations, and growing clarity around tariff-adjusted pricing and EPA 2027 NOx standards. As a result, fleet capital spending is geared toward power units, leaving trailers sidelined even as freight market conditions gradually improve.
The trailer market continues to face "persistent headwinds,” Moyer said. “Elevated steel and aluminum costs, ongoing trade uncertainty, high financing costs, and constrained capital spending are limiting incremental demand and keeping orders subdued.”
Looking ahead, McNealy pointed out a key question for the year: will accelerating freight rates and improving carrier confidence generate further upside order surprises, or will traditional second quarter order weakness take hold as fleets continue to prioritize Class 8 tractor purchases over trailers?
Another growing concern is how quickly OEMs will work through still-thin trailer backlogs, McNealy added, especially given uncertainty in freight-generating economic sectors and high fuel prices that weigh on purchasing decisions for both consumers and carriers.
