Class 8 preliminary net orders strengthened in May, reaching 26,600 units, up 4% month over month and ahead of expectations, according to FTR Transportation Intelligence.
The year-over-year comparison was even more striking: orders surged 120% compared to the prior-year period, extending a streak of triple digit year-over-year growth to four consecutive months. 
FTR
May volumes ran 56% above the 10-year seasonal average of 17,406 units. Vocational orders drove the monthly gain, while on-highway demand was essentially flat. Orders totaled roughly 313,000 units over the past 12 months.
FTR reported that year-to-date order intake was 112% higher than a year ago, and the 2026 order season was up 28%.
This momentum has improved backlog visibility for truck manufacturers, and FTR stated that remaining 2026 build slots could likely fill up or sell out before the typical August timeframe.
“Still, softer retail sales and uneven carrier profitability indicate the recovery is not universal,” the report said.
ACT Research’s estimates told a similar story. The firm pegged May preliminary Class 8 net orders at 26,500 units, up 12% month over month and 103% year over year.
“Despite the lack of build slots remaining in 2026 and entering what is historically a weak seasonal order period, new equipment demand remains buoyed by materially improved spot and contract rates on top of regulatory clarity,” said Carter Vieth, Research Analyst at ACT Research.
On the medium-duty side, Vieth reported that preliminary Classes 5-7 orders rose 32% year over year to 19,000 units in May, a moderate improvement. He attributed the progress partly to economic resilience and to possible dealer stocking ahead of the approaching EPA 2027 emissions standard.
FTR commercial vehicles senior analyst Dan Moyer credited growth on the heavy-duty side to a combination of tailwinds that maintained order flow: replacement demand, firming freight rates, rising utilization, tighter capacity, limited 2026 build capability and early EPA 2027 NOx pre-buy activity.
However, Moyer noted that the order pace is likely to slow as summer seasonality sets in and 2026 open build slots become limited. With demand running strong, Moyer said the issue is no longer whether fleets want trucks but whether truck manufacturers can actually deliver.
“Build execution, supplier readiness, labor availability and delivery timing will become increasingly important as 2026 progresses,” he said.
Moyer pointed out remaining risks: a stall in freight environment, financing pressure, geopolitical risks, or a final EPA rule that differs from expectations.
“Some fleets could defer or cancel orders placed to secure 2026 capacity,” he said.
With a healthy demand backdrop, Moyer said the question is whether manufacturers can turn the backlog into production, while limiting cancellations, deferrals and bottlenecks.
