Tender acceptance in the Uber Freight network crept back up in August, but the broader picture from the company shows a market that is still far from normal.
The U.S. national average price for a gallon of diesel fuel just this week hit a fresh high for the year at $6.29, according to the Energy Information Administration. Along with capacity tightening, tariff policy shifted three times in one quarter: Section 122’s 10% global tariff expired July 24 just as Section 301 duties took effect, and Section 338 then imposed a 50% duty on roughly $20 billion of Canadian imports on Aug. 22.
Together, those pressures point to an atypical peak season this year, according to Uber Freight principal economist Mazen Danaf.
“This is definitely not a peak season, and the bigger risk is actually upside if spot rates go higher,” said Danaf, noting that with pressures in fuel prices, capacity and tariffs, carriers are being more selective.
“Many shippers are still quoting and securing capacity week-to-week instead of locking it in months in advance, which leaves them exposed if demand rises suddenly in the fourth quarter,” he noted.
LTL stands out
Contract rates are repricing fast, according to the report. The national average van contract linehaul hit $2.39 per mile in July, up 18% year over year, the largest June-to-July jump on record. Spot rates spiked even harder—up 47% year over year in July—but have cooled for seven weeks since the July 4 peak and remain 35.6% above last year.
Truckload conditions in the third quarter have stabilized, most notably in the Southeast after two rough quarters, while the Northeast and Pacific Northwest are now the tightening areas.
Meanwhile, less-than-truckload pricing is at an all-time high and forecast to go higher. The TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index rate-per-pound index is estimated to reach 76.8%.
LTL carriers are also prioritizing yield over volume. Old Dominion (CCJ Top 250, No. 9)’s revenue per hundredweight rose 15.2% even as its tonnage fell. General rate increases arrived earlier and larger increases than in past years: ArcBest (No. 19) increased 5.9% in June and Saia (No. 18) imposed a 7.1% GRI in early July.
Tender acceptance recovers, but still off normal
Tender acceptance rose to 78% in August, up from 76% in July, as repriced routing guides began to hold and the spot market softened with the season. However, Danaf said that is still far below the 90% to 94% range Uber Freight’s network saw in the prior three years.
Uber Freight noted that capacity is not recovering at the pace usually seen during a tightening freight cycle. The report estimated more than 48,000 noncompliant drivers left the industry in the past year, and Class 8 truck order backlogs now equate to about nine months of production.
According to the RigDig database, the U.S. carrier population has seen a net loss of more than 50,000 prospects in just more than 12 months, even as more than 28,000 verified vehicles came online. RigDig is owned by Fusable, the parent company of CCJ.
Enforcement has continued to tighten—the report pointed to the Joint Task Force Crossroads of America, which has already pulled 110 CDL training schools tied to more than 5,000 drivers who failed English proficiency testing, and it has opened inspections at more than 200 driving schools.
“If this supply crunch worsens through the end of the year, the market will be more volatile and vulnerable to sudden demand surges. The key for shippers is to prioritize flexibility through proactive sourcing, backup plans, diversified networks and a close eye on new developments,” Danaf said.
Outside the Pacific Northwest, Uber Freight pointed to September and October as a relatively quiet window before peak season arrives in late October, offering a chance to review routing guides and secure capacity.
