While freight demand continues to inch back, fuel surcharges drove truckload rates higher in September.
The Cass Freight Index’s shipments component rose 2.3% month over month and 1.9% year over year in September, the second straight annual gain after a 3.5-year downturn — the longest on record.
Freight costs showed a stronger trend. The index’s expenditures component rose 20.4% year over year in September, up from 19% in August. The acceleration, driven by higher shipments, rates and fuel surcharges, is well above the 5.5% year-to-date rate Cass cited.
The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, which reflects both spot and contract rates, rose to 154.8 in September, up 0.6% month over month and 10.1% year over year. The sequential gain trailed the index’s 0.9% year-to-date average. ACT Research Vice President and Senior Analyst Tim Denoyer attributed this to spot rates retrenching and contract rates slowing with few bids this time of year.
“Even as spot rates slow with modest sequential declines, the much larger contract market is still adjusting higher,” Denoyer said.
Cass pointed to some signs of freight demand recovery: modest retail and industrial growth, some inventory restocking as container imports surge, and a smaller private fleet and rising new equipment sales to support higher for-hire volumes.
“While two months generally does not make a trend, and rising oil prices and interest rates are limiting factors, the cycle is on a positive track,” noted Denoyer.
ACT estimates North American intermodal volumes to reach 19.3 million loads in 2026, beating the 2018 record of 18.9 million. It expects another record in 2027. With normal seasonality, Cass expects October shipments to be up about 4% year over year and expenditures to be up 23%.
[RELATED: Rates may have 'peaked' but tight capacity keeping them high]
Fuel surcharges set records
DAT Freight & Analytics reported that national average spot and contract rates, including fuel, rose for all three equipment types in September as the monthly average diesel price topped $6 a gallon for the first time. Excluding fuel, van and flatbed rates declined in both markets while reefer rates rose.
DAT’s estimated fuel surcharge reached a record for each equipment type:
- Dry van: 84 cents a mile, up 14 cents from August
- Reefer: 92 cents a mile, up 15 cents from August
- Flatbed: $1.01 a mile, up 17 cents from August
The previous highs were set in June 2022: 75 cents for van, 82 cents for reefer and 90 cents for flatbed.
[RELATED: Fuel, capacity and peak fees push freight rates to record highs]
Meanwhile, volumes were mixed. The DAT Truckload Volume Index showed the three equipment types diverging, and all remained below prior-year levels:
- Dry van: 252, down 1% from August and down 1% year over year
- Reefer: 178, down 5% from August and down 10% year over year
- Flatbed: 298, up 2% from August and down 7% year over year
At September’s average diesel price of $6.291, a truck running 500 miles a day at 6 mpg spends about $524 a day on fuel. That's up $214 from February or about $1,070 over a five-day week, according to DAT.
“On the spot market, where there is no separate fuel surcharge, what matters for carriers is whether the rates they negotiate can cover their higher fuel bills,” said Dean Croke, DAT’s principal industry analyst. “Rates usually take three to four weeks to catch up with rising diesel prices, and carriers have to pay for fuel in the meantime.”
