ACT Research
Preliminary data from ACT Research showed that used Class 8 retail sales volume in December increased 23% month-over-month, ending the year on a strong note.
Looking back on 2024, Steve Tam, vice president at ACT Research, said it had been “measured progress.”
The used market outpaced typical seasonality, Tam said, which called for an increase of 8% month-over-month. Preliminary auction activity increased from November by 47%, while wholesale transactions improved 3.7%. Overall, sales were up 23% in December compared to the previous month.
With sales up 23% month-over-month, it was also up 24% compared to December 2023. In terms of pricing, used trucks sold at an average price 4% higher than in November but 4% lower compared to the previous year.
J.D. Power Valuation Services/Chris Visser
Chris Visser, J.D. Power director of specialty vehicles, noted that December’s results showed that the market remained stable throughout the year, with very little decline in value since the second quarter.
For late-model sleeper tractors, auction prices at the end of the year were only 2% lower than the strong market in 2018 and 50%-plus higher than the weaker market in 2019 (both figures not adjusted for inflation). Depreciation at auction was less than 1% per month on average in 2024.
In the retail market, prices for late-model sleeper tractors ended the year 15% below the strong 2018 market, but 10% above the weaker 2019 market (also not adjusted for inflation). Retail depreciation averaged 2.2% per month, typical based on historical trends.
Tam said a potential reason for the increase in sales is “buyers trying to time their purchases ahead of impending value increases.” Year-end sales targets are also a factor in the equation, as is year-end spending, wherein the typical "use it or lose" it budgeting mentality can drive that activity.
Section 179 accelerated depreciation, the tax code allowing eligible business taxpayers to deduct the price of equipment put into service during the year, is also a factor, Tam added.
Visser pointed out that sales were slower than normal in the fourth quarter, especially in December. This might have been due to uncertainty about the Presidential election and bad weather across most of the country. However, Visser said pricing didn’t change much, suggesting that the supply and demand for used trucks are fairly balanced.
[Related: How healthy is the used truck market going into 2025?]
Looking ahead
From a seasonality perspective, Tam and Visser agreed that demand typically softens in January and February before picking up in March.
“If our hypothesis is correct, we may see sales outperform in Q1 2025, especially given the encouraging signs of improving freight volumes and rates the industry is currently experiencing,” Tam said. “Downside risks to that assumption include persistent inflation and elevated interest rates.”
Later in the year, Visser noted that the volume of trades could increase as 2027 model year pre-buy activity picks up. Although, it could be “a bit of a wild card” as potential tariffs might affect activity at the ports.
The used truck market hit its lowest point in the second quarter of 2024 and has stayed stable since then, Visser said.
“That’s not the same as saying pricing is strong,” he pointed out. However, if freight predictions are correct, conditions could support an uptick in used truck pricing closer to the second half of 2025.