A major winter storm is projected to strike from Central Texas through the Northeast from Friday through this weekend, prompting the freight industry to prepare for significant disruptions. According to National Weather Service forecast models, over 30 states face harsh conditions, including heavy snow, sleet, freezing rain, and ice accumulation.
Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, examined historical winter weather to gauge potential market impacts from the approaching storm.
A major winter storm January 13-16, 2024, had a broad impact as far south was northern Texas and Louisiana.Truckstop.com, FTR
According to Truckstop.com and FTR data, the mid-January 2024 winter system produced modest spot rate increases—dry van rates rose 6.6 cents, and refrigerated rates jumped 12.3 cents. These gains were significant given that rates typically decline during that period and capacity remained relatively loose at the time.
The February 2021 winter storm proved far more disruptive, Vise noted, as it drove dry van rates up nearly 37 cents while refrigerated spot rates soared 51 cents over three weeks, amplified by pandemic-related capacity constraints.
How will capacity tightness and spot rate movements look like?
Capacity constraints will intensify across the South, though projections vary on severity and duration. Based on stronger-than-usual seasonal performance in December spot rates, Vise said, “We believe the overall truck freight market has tightened greatly and mostly lacks rising freight volume.”
Vise expects spot rate increases to surpass last January’s modest gains but remain below the dramatic spikes seen in February 2021. He noted that this weather event is similar to the 2024 storm—which occurred during what would otherwise be a week of declining rates—and may limit upside potential. Critical corridors expected to face the heaviest disruption include the I-40 and I-20 east-west routes and the I-35, I-45, and I-65 north-south arteries.
Particularly vulnerable are Texas outbound lanes from Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio, said DAT Freight & Analytics industry analyst Dean Croke. Cross-border traffic from Mexico is also worth watching; weather-induced bottlenecks at border crossings could constrain capacity and create rate spikes.
The Miami-to-Atlanta lane also faces compounded challenges, Croke added, as flower season imports from Colombia and Ecuador arrive ahead of Valentine’s Day, with spot reefer rates projected to rise 37% through mid-February. Croke noted that shippers are also adding “protect from freeze” notations to bills of lading, which is shifting more dry van freight into the refrigerated market.
This increased demand can be a significant benefit to reefer carriers. “With reefer linehaul spot rates averaging $2.41 per mile last week—and almost $2.50 a mile over the last four weeks—the weather could push rates even higher in the short term,” Croke said.
Meanwhile, Mazen Danaf, principal economist at Uber Freight, expects “localized capacity tightness rather than a broad, sustained squeeze across the South.”
The biggest impacts, Danaf said, stem more from short-term disruption, uncertainty, and last-minute rejections than true demand spikes. Despite weather-related disruptions, Danaf noted, “The market is facing strong seasonal headwinds and rates are likely to fall,” with normalization expected to resume in the coming weeks once the storm passes.
Costs triggered by winter weather events
Beyond spot rates, the most widespread additional cost could be fuel prices, Croke and Vise said, as storm systems can disrupt networks in the South-Central region, especially if power grid failures occur.
Deadhead miles can double or triple as carriers reroute around weather, Croke added, while detention costs accumulate as facilities reduce operating hours. Equipment repairs also become more common and expensive when demand surges.
However, Croke noted that unlike in 2021, demand isn’t driven by the pandemic, so the long-term impact of this event will likely be less significant.
“Rates will spike not because demand surged, but because the supply of capacity was reduced as the average speed of the freight network slowed to a crawl,” he said.
Danaf pointed to often-overlooked secondary expenses, including accessorial charges like detention and layover fees, expedite and mode-shift expenses (when freight shifts from ground to air), and internal operational costs.
Long-term market trends
Vise views the weather event as “more of a barometer” of the truck freight market’s current tightness, adding that FTR doesn't see any lasting effect beyond a week or two. For financially stressed carriers, the revenue boost will not be enough to make a material difference.
Croke echoed similar sentiments; however, he pointed out a tipping point for independent operators: “For the first time in about four years, we’re at the threshold where it makes economic sense to switch from being a leased-on owner-operator to an independent contractor—you need about $2.25 per mile, and we’re right there now.”
Weather-driven rate spikes could accelerate this transition by giving “owner-operators a taste of the upside potential of running independently,” Croke said. For that to happen, demand for trucks would need to be sustained until after the storm event. Danaf anticipates that a more meaningful trend will be behavioral: repeated weather disruptions will push more shippers away from a reactive approach and toward forecast-led planning.
