Improved freight rates and better capacity utilization are driving FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index to its strongest performance in almost four years during December.
The index soared to 4.85 in December from November’s 2.14 reading, with FTR noting that overall market conditions have turned positive for carriers.
“The TCI already indicated consistently favorable conditions for trucking companies over the next couple of years, but the latest outlook is even stronger,” said Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking.
FTR’s forecasts for the economy and industrial activity improved significantly, though it’s fueled by recent economic information and could be subject to future revisions. However, Vise said various market signals pointed to a stronger truck freight market.
Winter weather drives spot rate surge
Analysts pointed to spot rate increases as a key indicator of market improvement. Vise highlighted substantial spot rate gains triggered by recent severe winter weather, along with a strong January manufacturing index figure from the Institute for Supply Management.
Ken Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst, also pointed out the shift in rate environment. Following winter storms across the Midwest in December and January that caused DAT spot rates to surge 17% year over year in January.
“DAT’s load-to-truck ratio rose from 5 in November to just above 9 at the end of last month,” Vieth added. “The run-up in rates has likely given deep-pocketed large fleets confidence that the improving supply-demand balance will allow some of the early 2026 freight rate spike to stick beyond recent bad weather impacts.”
While FTR isn’t projecting to conditions similar to the 2021 market, Vise said, “Something close to it no longer seems inconceivable.”
Better economic performance and regulatory clarity
Meanwhile, ACT Research reported that Class 8 truck orders are rebounding after a slow 2025 as recent improvement in activity signals growing optimism for 2026.
Vieth pointed to strong economic performance: “The economy continues to exceed expectations, growing 4.4% q/q in Q3’25. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow expects 4.2% growth in Q4.”
AI and wealth-driven economic growth helped reduce overcapacity towards the end of 2025, Vieth said, with the economy appearing to have good momentum into early 2026.
Vieth also noted potential tailwinds from legal developments, stating that “the high likelihood the Supreme Court strikes down IEEPA tariffs as unconstitutional may lead to an inventory restock, further bolstering for-hire volumes.”
Besides the rate environment and economic factors, Vieth said part of the recent order uptick is due to regulatory clarity on the EPA’s Clean Truck low NOx rule. “With fleets aging, and new engine technologies expected at the start of 2027, better economic growth and improving rates support some pre-buying ahead of the coming mandate.”
