Article Summary
Shippers are seeing immediate, short-term relief on fuel surcharges, but carriers maintain significant pricing leverage heading into July 2026 due to structurally tight truck capacity and robust agricultural and industrial demand.
- Shippers are seeing a brief window of lower all-in spot rates and reduced fuel surcharges due to a 15-cent drop in national diesel prices and a typical mid-June seasonal slump.
- Despite the weekly dip, underlying market demand is exceptionally strong compared to last year—with spot rates up 50% and market demand nearly double 2025 levels—meaning carriers retain significant pricing leverage.
- Shippers utilizing specialized equipment face steep costs, as California's accelerating produce season keeps reefer demand high and flatbed linehaul rates have hit a new all-time record.
A seasonal mid-June cooling and falling diesel prices slightly lowered all-in spot truckload rates last week, though the freight market continues to significantly outperform 2025 levels, according to industry data released this week.
Market analysis from Truckstop.com, FTR Transportation Intelligence, and DAT Freight & Analytics for the week ending June 19 revealed that while volumes and spot rates dipped sequentially, structural market strength remains intact.
Truckstop and FTR's Market Demand Index (MDI) — a measure of relative truck availability against load postings — dropped across all major equipment types last week, signaling a typical mid-June slump. However, the total market MDI surged by 79.9 points year-over-year, a 96.7% increase compared to the same period in 2025. Spot rates across the board also remained 50.5% higher than last year's baselines.
Driving the week's shifts was a sharp drop in fuel costs. The national average diesel price fell 15 cents to $5.05 per gallon, down from $5.21 the previous week.
"Lower diesel prices were the story last week," said Dean Croke, industry analyst at DAT Freight & Analytics. "Average linehaul rates barely moved, suggesting the underlying spot market dynamics didn't shift last week, only the fuel cost layered on top of it."
The drop in diesel sparked a unique market shift. For the first time since early March, spot rates excluding fuel surcharges were slightly higher year-over-year than all-in rates, according to Truckstop and FTR.
According to DAT One data, broker-to-carrier all-in spot rates, which incorporate fuel surcharges, trended downward:
- Dry van: Fell 2 cents to $3.01 per mile.
- Refrigerated: Decreased 3 cents to $3.37 per mile.
- Flatbed: Slipped 3 cents to $3.70 per mile.
Segment breakdown
Dry van: Capacity tightened as dry van equipment postings on DAT One plunged 10% week over week, outpacing a marginal 0.5% drop in load volume. This pushed the load-to-truck ratio up to 9.6 from 8.7. Truckstop reported the Van MDI decreased 13 points to 251.4, though it remains 94.4% higher than last year's level. The linehaul portion of the rate edged up 1 cent to $2.38 per mile.
Refrigerated: Produce season continues to buoy the temperature-controlled market. California's produce volumes rose 5% last week to match last season's output, and rates to haul fruits and vegetables averaged $3.98 per mile — up 48 cents year over year. Overall reefer equipment availability fell 10% on DAT's platform, driving the load-to-truck ratio to 18.6. Truckstop noted a 62.9-point drop in its Refrigerated MDI to 229.8, which is still up 36.9% compared to mid-June 2025.
Flatbed: The flatbed market saw its first meaningful loosening since the spring run-up. Load postings fell 13% as pre-Independence Day project demand slowed. Truckstop's Flatbed MDI fell 28.6 points to 238.4. Despite the drop, demand remains historically high, with the MDI up 129.6% year over year. DAT reported that flatbed linehaul rates managed to tick up 1 cent to $2.94 per mile, marking a new record high and the segment's 14th consecutive weekly increase.
