In the push for commercial truck drivers to speak and understand the English language, I wonder what language autonomous vehicle (AV) speak? Do robots, for lack of a better term, speak English? When the highway patrol pulls over an autonomous truck for an inspection or potential violation, what language does the patrol officer need to speak to interact with the AV?
The rapid pace of technology innovation in trucking is creating as many questions as it is answering. For example, if trains, which travel exclusively on dedicated rail lines, are required to have human operators, how can trucks operate freely on the open roads without a human? If commercial aircraft with all their expensive auto-piloting technology are required to have human pilots on board, how do autonomous trucks fundamentally differ? If merchant shipping requires humans to get ships into and out of ports and difficult stretches of water, what is fundamentally different about autonomous trucks in severe traffic or weather conditions?
The root answer to these questions seems to be that humanity seems to want wheeled vehicles to drive themselves. Whether it is a car or truck doesn’t seem to matter, the world wants to get out of the driver seat.
Several years ago, NACFE held a workshop in Indianapolis on the burgeoning topic of AVs. The workshop was held in concert with the Indy Autonomous Challenge, a “race” demonstrating Indy racing cars at the Brickyard. A few of the key AV industry participants have since gone bankrupt, but others have taken up the reins. Both the race and the workshop were enlightening events.
The race showed that creative teams that combined automotive suppliers, advanced technology suppliers and university researchers could successfully operate Indy class race cars, individually. Competitive racing would be something that took place in the future. The event showcased tremendous progress in integrating sensors, telematics and automation into a racecar platform. Kind of the opening bid in automation poker.
The workshop highlighted the appeal of getting humans out of the arduous and dangerous job of operating commercial vehicles. The first claim is that humans are the root cause of 98% of accidents. That’s an accurate, if misleading statement. At the time, there were zero AVs operating in the U.S. So not much competition for humans to be compared to.
I was one of the workshop speakers. My presentation focused on some of the inevitable realities that come with adoption of AVs. At the time, roughly one-third to one-half of fleet operating costs were tied directly to the human driver — pay, benefits, hoteling, etc. The appeal of eliminating those costs is at the heart of AV technology. However, replacing an expensive human with an expensive computer does not necessarily solve the net cost of operations issue. I pointed out that in addition to the added capital expense of buying an autonomous truck, that software companies generally require on-going, recurring costs to maintain software. Autonomous trucks also have significantly more failure points — in particular sensors and computers that require constant vigilance and rapid maintenance. So, no free ride.
Operationally, the appeal of autonomous trucks is that they are not limited by hours-of-service rules that humans must abide. A human driver might, optimistically, get 600 to 650 miles per 11 hours day. An autonomous truck can theoretically run 24/7, accumulating three times as many miles per week. So, one truck can optimistically replace three trucks in a fleet, saving the cost of three drivers and giving a competitive advantage on speed of delivery.
The other side of that 24/7 operation is all the other freight system factors that also must operate 24/7 to support the AVs. Maintenance is an obvious one; 24/7 trucking requires 24/7 maintenance. On the customer side, shippers and receivers may have to support 24/7 pick-ups and deliveries.
A key cost factor is that 24/7 operations mean trucks accumulate miles three times faster than previously. This means they have to be replaced three times faster — if a fleet normally replaced their vehicles at five years and 500,000 miles, 24/7 operations mean that truck might need replacement in two years. The impact to capital budgeting could be significant.
Then the inevitable question comes up, who will want to buy a used autonomous truck? What is the residual value of a used AV? How long will they be in service? What will need to be done as the technology ages and faces rapid obsolescence. Most human-driven trucks have a 15 to 20 year life expectancy. How long will an autonomous truck be useful before operating costs exceed the benefits of operating one?
Think about your smartphone. How many of us have viable, working phones from 2010? Every year the industry made better, more capable phones, and software updates were no longer viable to get older phones to work with new systems. Look at 3G-, 4G- and 5G-ELDs as an example of obsolescence trends. Look at some software packages for autonomous automobiles and how older ones cannot be updated to the latest capabilities.
Replacing human drivers with computers is a bit of shell game as well. Take the human driver out but hire 24/7 human service technicians and software IT personnel? Look at the maintenance of modern commercial aircraft — the number of technicians on call 24/7 increased over the decades to deal with keeping the planes moving and dealing with advanced technologies.
And it not just the more rapid replacement cycle on trucks. Think about 24/7 operations impacting a fleets tire and brakes, and other consumables. Will one 24/7 autonomous truck replacing three human-driven trucks net out as a cost reduction for consumables over time?
Or will 24/7 operations be so lucrative that fleets simply add more 24/7 trucks? I suspect that autonomous trucks will be touted as a competitive advantage versus traditional human-driven trucks, so AV fleet businesses being cutthroat, will want to capture more market share from their human-driven competitors. Like all good ideas, more will be better, right?
There are a lot of questions being opened up with respect to autonomous trucking. The technology to do it is probably the least challenging. What is obvious in both the automotive and commercial truck worlds, is that AVs are coming. The desire to get humans out of the driver’s seat is real and like the old Greyhound jingle, let the AV do the driving.
