Truckload breakeven price per mile is at $3.12 as of Q2 2026, crossing the $3 threshold for the first time in history, according to an analysis report by JBF Consulting. It is a 13% jump, or 36 cents per mile, since August 2025.
JBF Consulting
The firm, which tracks operating costs using data from the American Transportation Research Institute, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and DAT Freight & Analytics, anticipates that the figure will remain elevated for the foreseeable future.
“We are now seeing the start of a new pricing era, where carriers have greater leverage and can begin to recoup their prior losses,” said Chris Doersen, JBF Consulting's principal of client engagement.
Fuel is driving the entire industry's pain
JBF’s analysis highlighted diesel prices as the most immediate accelerant putting pressure on margins. Fuel costs surged in March, adding approximately 30 cents per mile to operating costs and 35 cents per mile for shippers once empty-mile cost recovery is included.
In JBF's previous update, fuel efficiency was revised to 7 mpg. Average fuel economy has improved as fleets' newer equipment replaced older power units. The improvement has only partially offset high diesel fuel prices, which now account for 80 cents of the cost of each mile driven.
This is evident in DAT dry van data, as both spot and contract rates jumped roughly 35 cents per mile from February to May 2026.
ACT Research’s latest North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook also noted that net fuel rates in the spot market rose roughly 39% year-over-year at the start of June, and carriers have largely absorbed the elevated fuel costs.
So, if diesel retreats, does the breakeven drop back below $3.00? Doersen said even if fuel drops, non-fuel costs including driver wages, insurance premiums, and equipment prices continue to climb.
"Every dollar of diesel price contributes around $0.16 per mile to the breakeven price," he said. "Making some high-level inflation assumptions on the non-fuel costs, and diesel will have to drop to around $4.00 per gallon within the next six months to drop breakeven below $3.00 per mile again – and around $3.50 per gallon for a year from now."
Increasing costs across the board
JBF’s analysis showed driver wages have risen 2.2% over the past six months (a 4.4% annualized pace). Insurance premiums continue to climb, with increases expected following the Supreme Court’s recent ruling in Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II. While the ruling primarily targets brokers, its impact is expected to be felt across the industry.
JBF Consulting
New vehicle costs are also rising amid tariff uncertainty and renewed demand. Tariffs on steel, aluminum, copper and imported tractors, along with domestic labor constraints, have pushed tractor and trailer prices higher. Additionally, if fuel costs stay elevated, prices will likely increase due to inflated costs of manufacturing and delivering products.
Using new equipment, the total cost per mile estimate is $2.66. The additional 47 cents per mile is incurred when a carrier runs empty, non-revenue-generating miles.
Rising cost for new equipment also increased demand for used vehicles and, in turn, created pressure on new and used prices, JBF’s analysis noted.
Despite headwinds, ACT Research reported that Class 8 order activity remained strong through May, with preliminary orders of 26,500 units, up 103% year over year and 12% month over month. Besides improved spot and contract rates, ACT President and Senior Analyst Ken Vieth attributed the surge to regulatory clarity as carriers order ahead of anticipated equipment cost increases tied to 2027 emissions standards.
The rate climb
Per-mile spot rates, according to JBF’s report, have climbed from just over $2 in August 2025 to over $2.80 in May 2026.
ACT Research reported that spot rates are currently running above contract rates — which Vieth described as a “positive omen for carriers’ contract rate negotiations and future profitability.”
JBF estimates that given current cost structures, spot rates falling below $2.40 per mile appear unlikely in the future.
“There could be a major economic event that sees prices slip below that, but carrier attrition would not let it last long,” the report said.
Truckload spot and contract rates had already begun converging in the $2.40 to $2.50 range before diesel prices spiked in March. With aging equipment, increasing driver costs and lower carrier capacity, JBF anticipates that the long-term national average will settle around $2.50 per mile for spot rates and slightly higher for contract rates.
