As OEMs opened their order boards, Class 8 orders saw a significant increase in September.
Preliminary Class 8 net orders last month reached 30,000 units, according to FTR Transportation Intelligence. This marks a 107% month-over-month increase, but a 4% year-over-year decline. ACT Research estimated orders were at 37,100 units, doubling last month’s intake and up 0.3% year-over-year.
Data aligns with seasonal expectations as the average September order level over the past seven years has been 32,170 units, FTR reported. With the ongoing stagnation in the truck freight market in terms of both volume and rates, the order number signifies a balanced figure and indicate a solid initial demand for new trucks in 2025 as September normally marks the opening of the order boards for the next year.
Kenny Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst also echoed that Class 8 orders jumped significantly beyond the usual trend and seasonally elevated expectations in September.
FTR reported that year-to-date performance reflects replacement demand, with an average of 20,107 net orders per month. Although there have been four consecutive months of lower year-over-year orders, strong early performance has pushed 2024 YTD net orders to an 11% increase compared to last year. North American Class 8 orders have reached a total of 270,819 units over the past 12 months.
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OEMs saw positive market demand in September, though the magnitude of the month-over-month increases varied, said Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles at FTR. “The vocational market considerably outperformed the conventional sector, driving most of the month-over-month improvement.”
Despite stagnant freight markets, Moyer commented that fleets continue to invest in new equipment, but so far in 2024, this has been at replacement demand levels. “We expect a modest increase in September backlogs once the final Class 8 market data is released later this month.”
With inventory levels remaining record highs, Moyer added that FTR expects further pressure on build rates for the remainder of 2024.
Talking about medium-duty trucks, Vieth noted that orders remained within a consistent range, following a slow downward trend. Preliminary NA Classes 5-7 orders showed mixed results, with a slight month-over-month increase but a seasonal decline. In September, medium-duty net orders dropped by 4,700 units, or 20% year-over-year, to 19,100 units.