The spot market is seeing a post-Labor Day dip, following the typical September pattern of declining rates, with data highlighting flatbed as the strongest segment.
Loads posted to the DAT One network increased 10% to 2.2 million during the week of September 14-20. DAT reported that weekly truck posts declined by 7% to 232,938, 32% lower year-over-year.
Data from Truckstop.com and FTR Transportation Intelligence for the same week showed similar sentiments. After surging 22% in the Labor Day recovery, total load activity was up 1.0%. Total volumes ran 33% ahead of comparable 2024 levels due to flatbed strength and the contrast with last year's weak dry van baseline. Truck postings saw a 6.1% decline, and the Market Demand Index (which measures the ratio of loads to trucks) saw its highest peak since the International Roadcheck week in May.
The dry van segment saw rates deteriorating, falling two to four cents, according to Truckstop.com, and a modest one-cent decrease, according to DAT. Dry van volume showed year-over-year gains of 23% from Truckstop.com, while DAT reported a nearly 40% increase in load posts. However, Truckstop.com noted the segment’s strong year-over-year comparisons reflected the weakness of comparable 2024 periods.
The refrigerated segment was the weakest across both rate and volume metrics. Rate declines were the steepest among the three segments, down six cents (Truckstop.com) and two cents (DAT). DAT reported that reefer loads were up 4% week-over-week, though Truckstop.com noted a 19% decline in volume compared to 2024 levels.
Flatbed saw its rates 4% higher than during the same 2024 week, according to Truckstop.com. As for load volume, DAT noted 25% monthly growth, while Truckstop.com saw a 58% year-over-year increase.
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What’s driving flatbed strength?
The Southeast and South Central markets have maintained consistent year-over-year growth throughout 2025 and have driven flatbed strength, said Avery Vise, FTR vice president of trucking. Early-year surges were driven by tariff-related pull-forward of imports of steel and aluminum, and heavy equipment.
ince mid-year, the West Coast has seen year-over-year strength, which Vise attributed to early Pacific Northwest activity that is likely due to a preference for domestic lumber over Canadian lumber because of tariffs.
Another factor, Vise said, is flatbed activity in California since August. “We believe this is related to the import distortions this spring and summer related to tariffs and the distribution of flatbed-hauled commodities that might initially have gone into storage.”
“If so, the extreme differential between 2025 and 2024 volumes could fade at least modestly in the coming weeks,” Vise added.
Dean Croke, DAT Freight & Analytics principal analyst, also added that California has been performing well, with outbound rates up 3.2% year-over-year, averaging $2.24/mile, and volumes advancing 16%.
Croke also noted that Texas drives national flatbed dynamics, with rates up 5% and volumes up 20% year-over-year.
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October forecasts
Current rate patterns across all equipment types are tracking closely with prior-year levels, suggesting continuity, Vise said.
Dry van rates are projected to hold steady at $1.65 per mile until October 16, matching 2024 levels before typical seasonal volatility emerges around major holidays, Croke said. Refrigerated rates face a $0.02 decline to $2.01 per mile by mid-October, though this will still be $0.03/mile higher than last year. Both analysts note significant market tightening in early November, driven by seasonal produce and holiday shipments.
Flatbed rates are expected to maintain their current strength at $2.04/mile through mid-October, Croke said, with the potential for steady increases through winter barring any significant hurricanes in the Southeast.
